BREAKING! In the first of a series of technical notes by @FirstActuarial for @UCU, @Derek_Benstead and @RedActuary use @USSPensions figures to calculate that an unbiased estimate of the fund shows it to be sat on a surplus of £14.4bn! Read on for important context... 1/

The unbiased estimate of a £14.4bn surplus is the best guess of where things will end up based on the current investment portfolio. This figure should be the starting point for discussions over the health of the scheme and associated prudence, but so often is not. 2/

Instead, the pensions world in general, and @USSPensions in particular, happily refers to calculation based funding targets set on a more cautious approach as some kind of 'true' representation of the fund. They are not. 3/

I can't think of any other place where the approach used in the pensions world is employed. Instead, central expectations and confidence intervals rule the roost. How do we allow the actuarial world to side-step this convention? 4/

Inspired by Derek & Hilary's note, and Jane Hutton's efforts on the #USS board before her removal, I am pledging here on to refer to the unbiased estimate as the surplus or deficit in the fund, and adding caveats for a position further down the distribution. 5/

The first two of @FirstActuarial's notes are below. I hope to record some talk-though videos of their content at some point, time permitting. 6/6

Note 1: https://list.mercury.ucu.org.uk/t/173498/7199589/13442/5/?60bc612e=YnJvZmYtdXNz&560a3889=QmVuZWZpdCBjdXRzIHByb3Bvc2VkIGJ5IFVVSzogbmV4dCBzdGVwcyBhbmQgaG93IHRvIGVuZ2FnZSB3aXRoIHlvdXIgZW1wbG95ZXI%3d&x=5ff73903
Note 2: https://list.mercury.ucu.org.uk/t/173498/7199589/13443/6/?60bc612e=YnJvZmYtdXNz&560a3889=QmVuZWZpdCBjdXRzIHByb3Bvc2VkIGJ5IFVVSzogbmV4dCBzdGVwcyBhbmQgaG93IHRvIGVuZ2FnZSB3aXRoIHlvdXIgZW1wbG95ZXI%3d&x=ae5507db