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zorinaq

«herd immunity» *Dr Evil's air quotes*#Sweden #covid «Asymptomatic cases»«The increase isn't real»

COVID deaths & hospitalizations always lag cases. The lag has been demonstrated, is often 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 than a month, and its timing can be predicted accurately (I have done it.) The

Excited to share this new COVID modeling script:It applies various age-stratified IFR estimates to calculate the expected overall IFR in a given country. It's based on demographics (countries population pyramids):

Beware of this claim:«A US resident in a Long-Term Care Facility (LTCF) has a median length of stay (LOS) of 5 months until death, so if they die of COVID-19

Today in NEJM, a new #covid19 study: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2026116Let's see what they find about:- percentage who develop antibodies- antibody levels (not) changing over time- Infection Fatality Ratio (IFR)Spoiler:

Dying of, or dying with #covid19 ?Alternative title:US Death Certificates For DummiesFirst, here's a snippet of a certificate (source: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/dvs/DEATH11-03final-acc.pdf)1/N Box 32 of the certificate is filled out

I love this heatmap It represents over 100,000 individual datapoints.These are Florida COVID-19 cases, over time, by age bracket.I published open-source code to make it: https://github.com/mbevand/florida-covid19-line-list-dataThe recent ca