Quick https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇨🇦" title="Flag of Canada" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of Canada"> risk thread for #fintwit.

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇨🇦" title="Flag of Canada" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of Canada"> households saw minimum payments rise 3 points higher than inflation. That extra income going to servicing debt, and not recirculated in the economy.

btw, the closer borrowers are to min. payments, the riskier they are to borrowers.

Consumers: The economy was amazing before COVID19.

Risk firms behind the scene: The economy was deteriorating before COVID19.

Canada& #39;s bet on the oil industry was an execution for a lot of people. This was pre-COVID-19 btw.

Good thing we& #39;re doubling down on oil, and we& #39;ll get some more people in an industry that depends on precarious employment.

TransUnion is forecasting a "severe" scenario for credit. They originally thought it was going to be "medium," but indicators recently moved to severe.

Buckle up.

In the severe scenario, they expect mortgage delinquencies to double.

#ToRE #VanRE

Bank card delinquencies are going to make a big jump.

Remember, they& #39;re now expecting the severe scenario.

TransUnion developed an index to tell lenders how much they can lose on each borrower over the next 24 months. https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="😂" title="Face with tears of joy" aria-label="Emoji: Face with tears of joy">

*sweats in lender*

My favorite part of the presentation was they don& #39;t expect subprime borrowers to surge in losses. Why? Because they& #39;re already in their own "personal recession."