The process of "systemic sensemaking" starts after every catastrophe: from Pearl Harbour to Challenger/Columbia to 9/11 to Covid-19. The system holds the knowledge but a crystallizing event solidifies its relevance.

I've seen numerous videos forecasting this - from the likes of President Bush in 2005 to Bill Gates in 2015. The knowledge existed that a threat was imminent but timelines were unclear. So we had a high potential event just hanging over the medical community and researchers.

When the event occurred, as with Bhopal and other crises, the evidence is abundantly clear: the occurrence of the event solidifies the evidence that was only categorized as "potential". But looking back from today, it seems so obvious.

There have been many presidents that had similar warnings of a pandemic. Dubya seems to have done the most to advance preparation. The 10 or 20 or 50 billion needed to prepare USA now seem like an incredibly cheap investment considering the trillions of economic carnage.

Because an incredible range of potential options exist - from nothing happening to something severe happening - it's always a partially safe bet to give lip service, but not significant $$ and time (Joseph and the Pharaoh got this right in Egypt)

When systemically sensemaking then, the effort needs to be on scenario creation and assessment as a preparatory tactic, exactly what Gates proposes in his TED talk and what military leaders do regularly. It primes the system to recognize things that matter and respond rapidly.

This article gets at the issue: "What this suggests is a systematic failure to absorb and act upon existing information rapidly and effectively rather than a complete lack of knowledge of what ought to be done." https://hbr.org/2020/03/lessons-from-italys-response-to-coronavirus

In the case of covid-19, western countries had between 4-6 weeks to prepare. But, "The virus is faster than our bureaucracy". Even when the system knows which knowledge matters, it faces policy and human inertia.