MICHIGAN: is shrinking from 14 to 13 seats, and w/ a new citizens& #39; commission, few incumbents are safe. Somewhat ironically, *Dems* might have more to lose switching from the current GOP gerrymander (left) to a more compact plan (example, right). Here& #39;s why...

In 2018, the GOP gerrymander crumbled and Ds picked up two suburban Detroit seats, #MI08 and #MI11. But now, every seat needs to expand. And w/ two Black majority seats to preserve ( #MI13 and #MI14 below), there may not be enough blue turf left to protect all four suburban Ds.

For example, it& #39;s possible #MI09 Rep. Andy Levin (D) & #MI11 Rep. Haley Stevens (D) get thrown together (below), and #MI08 Rep. Elissa Slotkin is forced to run in a swingy, much more Lansing-centric seat. In the words of one House Dem, "I& #39;m worried we& #39;ve outkicked our coverage."

Another major concern for Dems: #MI05 Rep. Dan Kildee (D), whose Flint seat has been trending R and voted for Biden by just 4%. #MI05 needs to pick up about 100k residents and he& #39;s surrounded on most sides by heavily pro-Trump territory.

A big decision for the commission: where to put Ann Arbor. If it& #39;s in a district similar to Rep. Debbie Dingell (D)& #39;s current #MI12, she& #39;d be safe. But if it& #39;s moved to, say, Rep. Tim Walberg (R)& #39;s #MI07, both of them could be forced to run in highly competitive districts.

Bottom line: don& #39;t get me wrong, a commission map is certainly preferable for Dems vs. the GOP drawing the map all over again. But, w/ the delegation tied 7D-7R, there could still be more downside risk for Dems. Michigan is *very* high-stakes, w/ a ton of uncertainty.