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Just in: final FL voter reg. data. Since this March's primary, here are each party's net gains:
GOP: +344,465
Dem: +197,821
NPA/Other: +197,818
Compare to the same period in '16:
GOP: +274,207
Dem: +307,961
NPA/Other: +220,857
Trump's '16 FL margin: 112,911 votes
GOP: +344,465
Dem: +197,821
NPA/Other: +197,818
Compare to the same period in '16:
GOP: +274,207
Dem: +307,961
NPA/Other: +220,857
Trump's '16 FL margin: 112,911 votes
For reference, here's the story I wrote for @NBCNews a few weeks ago putting the GOP's recent registration success in FL/NC/PA in context: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/trump-s-winning-voter-registration-battle-against-biden-key-states-n1241674
Here's the final Nov. 2020 FL voter breakdown by party and race (14,441,869 registrants):
37% Dem
36% GOP
27% NPA/Other
61.5% White
17.3% Hispanic
13.4% Black
7.8% Other
Compare to Nov. 2016:
38% Dem
35% GOP
27% NPA/Other
64.2% White
15.7% Hispanic
13.4% Black
6.7% Other
37% Dem
36% GOP
27% NPA/Other
61.5% White
17.3% Hispanic
13.4% Black
7.8% Other
Compare to Nov. 2016:
38% Dem
35% GOP
27% NPA/Other
64.2% White
15.7% Hispanic
13.4% Black
6.7% Other
So a few takeaways:
1) Yes, FL Rs made inroads b/c Trump-voting registered Ds have formally switched to R *and* Rs have out-hustled Ds this year on new registrations
2) But FL's electorate has also gotten 2.7% less white since '16, and many young/non-whites registering as NPA
1) Yes, FL Rs made inroads b/c Trump-voting registered Ds have formally switched to R *and* Rs have out-hustled Ds this year on new registrations
2) But FL's electorate has also gotten 2.7% less white since '16, and many young/non-whites registering as NPA
Another thing I've always thought: the Clinton FL ground effort was actually really impressive in '16 - and without it, she would've lost by much more.
Meanwhile, Trump ran virtually no Spanish language effort in '16, and this time his FL Hispanic outreach is much more robust.
Meanwhile, Trump ran virtually no Spanish language effort in '16, and this time his FL Hispanic outreach is much more robust.
Still, would I rather be a Dem w/ a four point FL polling lead heading into the final 20 days, or a GOP president w/ a favorable recent FL voter registration trend?
I'd rather be the Dem.
I'd rather be the Dem.
