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Just in: final FL voter reg. data. Since this March& #39;s primary, here are each party& #39;s net gains:
GOP: +344,465
Dem: +197,821
NPA/Other: +197,818
Compare to the same period in & #39;16:
GOP: +274,207
Dem: +307,961
NPA/Other: +220,857
Trump& #39;s & #39;16 FL margin: 112,911 votes
GOP: +344,465
Dem: +197,821
NPA/Other: +197,818
Compare to the same period in & #39;16:
GOP: +274,207
Dem: +307,961
NPA/Other: +220,857
Trump& #39;s & #39;16 FL margin: 112,911 votes
For reference, here& #39;s the story I wrote for @NBCNews a few weeks ago putting the GOP& #39;s recent registration success in FL/NC/PA in context: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/trump-s-winning-voter-registration-battle-against-biden-key-states-n1241674">https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/...
Here& #39;s the final Nov. 2020 FL voter breakdown by party and race (14,441,869 registrants):
37% Dem
36% GOP
27% NPA/Other
61.5% White
17.3% Hispanic
13.4% Black
7.8% Other
Compare to Nov. 2016:
38% Dem
35% GOP
27% NPA/Other
64.2% White
15.7% Hispanic
13.4% Black
6.7% Other
37% Dem
36% GOP
27% NPA/Other
61.5% White
17.3% Hispanic
13.4% Black
7.8% Other
Compare to Nov. 2016:
38% Dem
35% GOP
27% NPA/Other
64.2% White
15.7% Hispanic
13.4% Black
6.7% Other
So a few takeaways:
1) Yes, FL Rs made inroads b/c Trump-voting registered Ds have formally switched to R *and* Rs have out-hustled Ds this year on new registrations
2) But FL& #39;s electorate has also gotten 2.7% less white since & #39;16, and many young/non-whites registering as NPA
1) Yes, FL Rs made inroads b/c Trump-voting registered Ds have formally switched to R *and* Rs have out-hustled Ds this year on new registrations
2) But FL& #39;s electorate has also gotten 2.7% less white since & #39;16, and many young/non-whites registering as NPA
Another thing I& #39;ve always thought: the Clinton FL ground effort was actually really impressive in & #39;16 - and without it, she would& #39;ve lost by much more.
Meanwhile, Trump ran virtually no Spanish language effort in & #39;16, and this time his FL Hispanic outreach is much more robust.
Meanwhile, Trump ran virtually no Spanish language effort in & #39;16, and this time his FL Hispanic outreach is much more robust.
Still, would I rather be a Dem w/ a four point FL polling lead heading into the final 20 days, or a GOP president w/ a favorable recent FL voter registration trend?
I& #39;d rather be the Dem.
I& #39;d rather be the Dem.
