Read on Twitter
Donald Trump still leads in Texas, according to the final Times/Siena poll of the state, as strength among nonwhite voters does just enough to overcome all out rebellion in the suburbs
Trump 47, Biden 43 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/26/upshot/poll-texas-hispanics-trump.html
Trump 47, Biden 43 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/26/upshot/poll-texas-hispanics-trump.html
The GOP still faces some pretty catastrophic risks downballot, as Biden leads by 5 across the competitive House districts (which were Trump+8 in 2016).
There's barely any swing toward Biden in the rest of the state, where white no college, Black and Hispanic voters prevail.
There's barely any swing toward Biden in the rest of the state, where white no college, Black and Hispanic voters prevail.
In the survey, white college grads in these competitive districts have swung (per their own self-report) from Trump+24 in '16 to Trump+2.
But nonwhite voters statewide have swung toward Trump, modestly but significantly given they represent nearly half of voters
But nonwhite voters statewide have swung toward Trump, modestly but significantly given they represent nearly half of voters
Turnout is obviously a key question in a state with no recent record of competitive contests.
In early voting, Biden has amassed a 7 point lead among those who cast ballots by Friday, per L2 data.
But Trump has a far larger lead among those who say they'll vote later.
In early voting, Biden has amassed a 7 point lead among those who cast ballots by Friday, per L2 data.
But Trump has a far larger lead among those who say they'll vote later.
Is it possible that Biden can keep drawing such a favorable group of voters to the polls, and upset the estimate here? I can't rule it out.
It is also hard not to note that the president's biggest strength here--less educated nonwhite voters--is a very hard group to measure
It is also hard not to note that the president's biggest strength here--less educated nonwhite voters--is a very hard group to measure
Small sample obviously, but Biden. Somewhat more robust: tie across the big fast growing suburb/exurb battlegrounds: Collin/Tarrant/Williamson/Denton/Hays. https://twitter.com/DavidKillion4/status/1320773549792153600?s=20
It's 5 percent undecided, which I do think is pretty reasonable. In addition, you've got over 3 percent saying Lib, 1 percent saying someone else, 1 percent saying they won't vote on the presidential ballot https://twitter.com/Gosspaine/status/1320774861539569664?s=20
Well, we certainly did underestimate Hispanic turnout/vote in '18. And it's possible we'll do so again. Hispanic voters are challenging everywhere, but this is a state where there's no real record of competitive races, no party registration, etc https://twitter.com/damrider11/status/1320776251871809539?s=20
The question, though, is why were we wrong? Was it because of sampling--we just can't reach the right voters? If so, then the pattern would repeat itself. But there are other possible causes that may not repeat itself--at least not to the same extent
Take our polls of AZ and NV, for instance. In '18, we had McSally and Heller ahead--wrongly.
I'd argue our AZ polls have been the very best for Dems of anyone so far this cycle. NV seems perfectly reasonable.
So I don't think 18 necessarily predicts 20
I'd argue our AZ polls have been the very best for Dems of anyone so far this cycle. NV seems perfectly reasonable.
So I don't think 18 necessarily predicts 20
The undecided voters disapprove of Trump by a 2:1 margin, 60-30, so there's some upside for Biden there https://twitter.com/604yousuf/status/1320778184867139585?s=20
