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Nate Cohn
Nate_Cohn
Well, I'd posit that if the Trump voters were lying, that we'd see a lot of GOP primary voters / reg. GOP saying they were voting for Biden (as we
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You'll see a lot of early voting statistics out there that cite the partisan makeup of early voters, like, say, a D+15 among absentees in Florida, based on registration.But remember
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Perhaps the most interesting result: Gary Peters (D) holds just a 1 point lead over John James (R), 43-42, in the race for US Senate in Michigan, down from a
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Joe Biden leads Donald Trump in Pennsylvania and Florida, according to new Times/Siena polls taken after the first debate.Biden leads in Pennsylvania, 49 to 42 percent among likely voters. He
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With the important exception of the Monmouth national poll, the last five days of polls have been really brutal for Trump. The ABC/NYT polls in PA are potentially devastating. These
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New NYT/Siena polls find a close contest in three states Trump carried easily in 2016:Georgia: 45-45Iowa: Biden 45, Trump 42Texas: Trump 46, Biden 43https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/24/us/politics/trump-biden-polls-texas-georgia-iowa.html De
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There are plenty of places where the polls have been 'wrong' in recent cycles.One place where they have not been wrong, in either 2016 or 2018, is Texas. Now, there's
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I'd be curious to read--from both sides--about a very simple topic when it comes to this Supreme Court debate: raw political power Let's be honest, the Senate didn't act on
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New KFF/Cook surveys: Arizona: Biden+5Florida: Biden+1North Carolina: Biden+2And a nice thing about these polls is that they're methodologically unique, with a novel live phone+mail-to-web methodology for full coverage RBShttps://www.kf
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One interesting--and perhaps extremely telling--thing about the race is that there's a big disconnect between the way the Trump team (and maybe everyone) thinks Trump can win, and his actual
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I was already pretty intrigued by the polling situation in Arizona. There have been quite a few good numbers for Biden this month, and there are reasonable ways of calculating
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There are some valid differences:--538 shifted from 'polls only' to 'polls plus' as default. polls plus in '16 was clinton 73.5% on 8/26--polling and priors now support a Trump E.C.
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