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Biden now leads by 3.86 points nationwide, per @Redistrict popular vote tracker, matching Obama& #39;s 3.86 pt win in 2012. He& #39;ll exceed it soon.
They won by similar amounts in very different ways. Here& #39;s the shift in presidential results between 2012 and 2020
They won by similar amounts in very different ways. Here& #39;s the shift in presidential results between 2012 and 2020
Most of this swing occurs from 2012-2016, with relative stability between 2016 and 2020
The 2016-2020 swing is barely even worth mention on the 2012-2016 scale, at least outside of heavily Latino areas and ATL/DAL.
If we narrow the scale to tease out this cycle& #39;s subtler shifts, suburban movement stands out a bit more but still isn& #39;t always overwhelming
If we narrow the scale to tease out this cycle& #39;s subtler shifts, suburban movement stands out a bit more but still isn& #39;t always overwhelming
Check out the discontinuity along the MO-AR border on the 12-16 shift and the lack of a discontinuity on the 12-20 map. The Clinton brand still had some appeal down there! https://twitter.com/jtlevy/status/1330141654326579200?s=20">https://twitter.com/jtlevy/st...
