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The racial gap in American electoral politics is shrinking, according to pre-election polls.
The gap between white and nonwhite voters has dropped by 17 points, as Biden and Trump make equal and oppose gains among white and nonwhite voters https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/28/upshot/election-polling-racial-gap.html">https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/2...
The gap between white and nonwhite voters has dropped by 17 points, as Biden and Trump make equal and oppose gains among white and nonwhite voters https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/28/upshot/election-polling-racial-gap.html">https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/2...
Four years ago, national polls plainly showed the Trump surge among white voters without a degree--clearly signaling Trump& #39;s path to victory.
No sign of it today: Trump leads 58-37 among white no college voters, down from 59-30 in the final & #39;16 polls.
No sign of it today: Trump leads 58-37 among white no college voters, down from 59-30 in the final & #39;16 polls.
This has shifted throughout the cycle. Back in the spring, Trump was matching his & #39;16 showing among white working class voters. Since then, white voters have moved decisively toward Biden
In Times/Siena, Trump& #39;s losses among white voters without a degree have a clear regional bent.
He holds his support in the Deep South (and Nevada).
He& #39;s not even retaining 90% of his support in the North
He holds his support in the Deep South (and Nevada).
He& #39;s not even retaining 90% of his support in the North
. @Redistrict often talks about how the district polling is so different. This data is my equivalent. I tracked this all cycle in & #39;16, and it sure seemed to hint at a path victory... that just never showed up in the state polling https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/07/upshot/why-the-election-is-close-and-what-trump-and-obama-have-in-common.html">https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/0...
At the same time, Biden& #39;s running behind Clinton among nonwhite voters by almost the exact same amount as white voters. He& #39;s up just 42 points, down from Clinton& #39;s 51 point lead in 2016. Notably, it& #39;s Trump picking up support--not just undecideds or something
Hispanic defections stand out as a cause of the Biden slip in NYT/Siena polling.
Biden& #39;s support among Clinton voters:
Whites 94-3
Blacks 93-2
Hispanics 84-7
Biden& #39;s support among Clinton voters:
Whites 94-3
Blacks 93-2
Hispanics 84-7
