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The racial gap in American electoral politics is shrinking, according to pre-election polls.
The gap between white and nonwhite voters has dropped by 17 points, as Biden and Trump make equal and oppose gains among white and nonwhite voters https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/28/upshot/election-polling-racial-gap.html
The gap between white and nonwhite voters has dropped by 17 points, as Biden and Trump make equal and oppose gains among white and nonwhite voters https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/28/upshot/election-polling-racial-gap.html
Four years ago, national polls plainly showed the Trump surge among white voters without a degree--clearly signaling Trump's path to victory.
No sign of it today: Trump leads 58-37 among white no college voters, down from 59-30 in the final '16 polls.
No sign of it today: Trump leads 58-37 among white no college voters, down from 59-30 in the final '16 polls.
This has shifted throughout the cycle. Back in the spring, Trump was matching his '16 showing among white working class voters. Since then, white voters have moved decisively toward Biden
In Times/Siena, Trump's losses among white voters without a degree have a clear regional bent.
He holds his support in the Deep South (and Nevada).
He's not even retaining 90% of his support in the North
He holds his support in the Deep South (and Nevada).
He's not even retaining 90% of his support in the North
. @Redistrict often talks about how the district polling is so different. This data is my equivalent. I tracked this all cycle in '16, and it sure seemed to hint at a path victory... that just never showed up in the state polling https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/07/upshot/why-the-election-is-close-and-what-trump-and-obama-have-in-common.html
At the same time, Biden's running behind Clinton among nonwhite voters by almost the exact same amount as white voters. He's up just 42 points, down from Clinton's 51 point lead in 2016. Notably, it's Trump picking up support--not just undecideds or something
Hispanic defections stand out as a cause of the Biden slip in NYT/Siena polling.
Biden's support among Clinton voters:
Whites 94-3
Blacks 93-2
Hispanics 84-7
Biden's support among Clinton voters:
Whites 94-3
Blacks 93-2
Hispanics 84-7
