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#Probabilities
Anna Stansbury
annastansbury
What do we know about occupational mobility in the US?As you may know, there isn’t very good existing data on it.So @gregorschub, @Bledi_Taska & I construct new occupational mobility data,
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polar bear ↺ 5
frogorbs
oh my god i literally have less than 204 years to get this package it's literally gonna go before i can get it shit i am addicted to those fucking
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Fatidicus Aeternus
AugustusReditus
It's amazing how often people can't find a way to articulate exactly why they find something like having a high bodycount or having an onlyfans account offensive.https://twitter.com/Virescence/status/1246503531739328512 Their pure materialist
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Adam W Gaffney
awgaffney
I'm so grateful for the lifesaving work done by the RECOVERY platform trialists: because of them we know that dexamethasone and tocilizumab save lives in severe COVID (and so use
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Ben Maldonado
benjymaldonado
Here is my bigger picture view of where, I believe the probabilities currently favor, we are going in the $ES / $SPX over the next several months. There is a
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Jo
JofDom
$BTC 1/8Daily distribution for returns and ranges.This can give an idea about what to expect in terms of returns and ranges probabilities. (Exemple; 10%+ Daily returns almost never happen on
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🔥 Kareem Carr 🔥
kareem_carr
Sometimes I hear people say their thought process is Bayesian. They seem to mean that they often rate their beliefs on a scale of [0,1] and they "update" by which
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Travis Fain
TravisFain
In briefing for #ncga legislators @SecMandyCohen says state does not yet have projections it feels confident in re: When COVID-19 cases peak, how many beds are needed, etc. Notes many
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Lawrence Lepard, "fix the money, fix the world"
LawrenceLepard
Currency Failure Thread.It's all over. Fiat is failing. The math is irrefutable. The only issue is timing. Investing is about probabilities. I believe a key in investing is to try
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Cem Karsan 🥐
jam_croissant
1/x In my1st year in the pits of Chicago, I quickly learned a favorite pastime of idle traders on a Friday w/nothing trading was to create a humorously absurd challenge
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Josh Rayman
joshrayman
Some updates to the NS model page with.. not very long to go: New visualisation of the dice roll: tipping point edition (2/6) Hex map animation (3/6) Map replay of
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Fatima Akram Hayat
fatimakramhayat
Today, someone asked me for feedback on his research. I just went through it; he has regressed a binary outcome applying an OLS model. I tried to explain why he
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Martin J Gilbert
Mad_iguana
US Election post:Win probability today: Biden 83%; Trump 17%Nat'l vote projection today: B 54%; T 45% (B+9)Win prob 2016 (Polls+, 18 days before): Clinton 84%; T 16%Nat'l votes t-18 2016:
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Shrikant Joshi
shrikant
6 days ago, we were at 1400 cases.Today, we are at 4374 cases.About 3x in 6 days.If this trend holds:12 Apr - 13k cases18 Apr - 40k cases24 Apr -
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Charles X Proxy™
Charlemagne0814
I know people don’t like this but the salient point of that CDC update (“6%”) is not whether someone dies of COVID but what are the risks of dying. For
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Astra Taylor
astradisastra
Today I've been thinking of 2020 less as the year of unexpected shocks & catastrophes more as the year predictions came true. For decades concerned people have studied the likelihood
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