I know people don’t like this but the salient point of that CDC update (“6%”) is not whether someone dies of COVID but what are the risks of dying. For that, you have to use the notions of conditional probabilities and independence.

The LW wants to dump as many bodies into the death toll as they can because fear is one of their tools of control. But your risks (B) are unique to your own situation. And clearly these risks are not all that dissimilar to other viruses.

Of course, no other virus has been under the “social media microscope” like COVID; so it’s hard to compare technically. But one can be rational; that is not a LW trait.

The way to read that formula is “the probability that A happens given that B happened is equal to the probability that A & B events will happen together, divided by the probability that B will happen.”

If an event A (eg death) is independent of B, the left side is equal to the probability is A alone (I will avoid the minor math). So for example, a plane crash is independent of passengers’ cancer status (one of the dumb comments yesterday).

The point of that data is “what are the fatality rates for different (conditional) populations.” That is not a trivial consideration when thinking about public policy and getting a handle on this hysteria.

Another related consideration is the fidelity of the data being used. The CDC did not address that but it’s a grave (no pun intended) concern.

But any rate, if one is youngish and in reasonable health, the risks are tiny. As in flu season, the elderly and those with health issues have risks. And, whether you like it or not, the April spike did redistribute deaths non-trivially.

Yes, there are some “excess deaths,” as the CDC calls them.

But until there is a real analysis of the data including proper vetting, we are still in the hysteria phase.