Read on Twitter
6 days ago, we were at 1400 cases.
Today, we are at 4374 cases.
About 3x in 6 days.
If this trend holds:
12 Apr - 13k cases
18 Apr - 40k cases
24 Apr - 125k cases
30 Apr - 400k cases
Doesn't that worry you? https://twitter.com/shrikant/status/1244902255095975943
Today, we are at 4374 cases.
About 3x in 6 days.
If this trend holds:
12 Apr - 13k cases
18 Apr - 40k cases
24 Apr - 125k cases
30 Apr - 400k cases
Doesn't that worry you? https://twitter.com/shrikant/status/1244902255095975943
Okay, let me put it in perspective...
If the trend holds, we will have 4 lakh infected people less than a month from now. FOUR. LAKH.
From LESS than 5k cases right NOW, we will reach a point where 0.03% or 3 out of 10000 people are infected in LESS THAN A MONTH.
If the trend holds, we will have 4 lakh infected people less than a month from now. FOUR. LAKH.
From LESS than 5k cases right NOW, we will reach a point where 0.03% or 3 out of 10000 people are infected in LESS THAN A MONTH.
The growing numbers are scary because of how probabilities work.
At 4L cases, the chances of you randomly getting infected are 80 times higher than at 5k cases - simple math!
In other words, YOUR chances of getting infected are increasing with each additional detected case.
At 4L cases, the chances of you randomly getting infected are 80 times higher than at 5k cases - simple math!
In other words, YOUR chances of getting infected are increasing with each additional detected case.
Granted, the probability of you getting infected is very, VERY small right now but it is increasing with each detected positive case.
Add to that, 80% of the cases detected are asymptomatic. So, the total number of actual positive cases is likely to be much higher...
Add to that, 80% of the cases detected are asymptomatic. So, the total number of actual positive cases is likely to be much higher...
Exponentials are like jump-scares - they don't strike terror in your heart until they do and it's usually too late by then...
To avoid a jump scare, we need to either prevent it or EXPECT it.
We don't have the resources to do the former but we can definitely do the latter.
To avoid a jump scare, we need to either prevent it or EXPECT it.
We don't have the resources to do the former but we can definitely do the latter.
If I have managed to get you feeling worried and scared with this thread, good. I'm happy.
If it makes you paranoid about meeting people, if it makes you go out less, and interact with fewer people, then my purpose has been achieved.
STAY. THE. FUCK. HOME.
If it makes you paranoid about meeting people, if it makes you go out less, and interact with fewer people, then my purpose has been achieved.
STAY. THE. FUCK. HOME.
