Today I've been thinking of 2020 less as the year of unexpected shocks & catastrophes more as the year predictions came true. For decades concerned people have studied the likelihood of many bad things happening & proposed intelligent ways to prevent or mitigate them.

A thread:

Cassandras sounded various alarms, and like Cassandra they were mostly ignored.

A pandemic in the form of a zoonotic illness that crosses the species barrier? Experts have warned of that for years and suggested lots of ways to avert them.

Fires, flooding, and storms? Anyone who has followed climate news was aware this was coming and the changes required. Millions of people one disaster away from homelessness, food insecurity, and more debt? We cannot say we had no idea this was the case.

A hollowed out, archaic, increasingly unresponsive and oligarchic political system? Same. The fact an elderly and beloved Supreme Court justice might pass away under a Republican-controlled administration? Many respected legal minds brought up this sensitive subject too.

Like may of you, I imagine, I find myself disoriented and feeling like I can't get a grip on the stream of awful events. I write this because I'm just wondering if something shifts if we comprehend the chaos befalling us as both predicted and preventable, instead of unexpected.

None of these warnings had particularly long odds. We are, basically, where the data and probabilities said we'd be if we didn't act.

Action is key. Caught off guard, we're stuck with reaction, disoriented and scrambling. But if we can face the facts, and honestly assess the risks and possibilities ahead, we might be able to move forward with some clarity and, proactively, strategize and shift course.