#Estimate

Christi Grimm is a career official, not an Obama appointee. She began at the IG's office in 1999. She was there for 1+ years of Clinton, 8 years Bush, 8

Translation: “Crap. What if these numbers are waaaaay inflated and Trump comes in far below the death projections?! He’ll look good! We can’t have that! We’d better dig into the

Have you seen the new best estimate infection fatality rates by the CDC? 20-49 is 0.02%. That's a 99.98% survival rate. Here is what I had three weeks ago... Under

A few quotes: "Leading disease forecasters (...) were mystified when they saw the administration’s projection this week."Experts and Trump’s advisers doubt White House’s 240,000 coronavirus deaths estimatehttps://www.washingtonpost.com/heal

Mels ER bill is more than what I can afford currently, if anyone wants to send some $ my way to help eius j the costs I would appreciate any

Update: following today's hospital data, a cautious estimate of the number of UK excess deaths during the Covid-19 pandemic up to 18 May is62,100Of these, we know 51,441 have occurred,

Aside from our vetted pool of talented freelancers, we offer project estimation services to our clients as well.Our services help clients have a better understanding of their software project and

Quick thread on Mr P. What is it? Often we want to generalize some statistic from a potentially biased sample to a population. It might be a measurement (say, partisan

seeing another n o e s t i m a t e s conversation where the people involved basically don't understand the type of estimates that NE is talking aboutI've

HostileSpectrum

HostileSpectrum

With today's announcement of IPv4 exhaustion, it may be time to surface all the legacy FINTEL predicting this day would come, & look at tradecraft. The oldest published cyber intel

Dr. Phil Metzger

I estimated it would take 40 years at $7 billion per year to create a fully closed supply chain off-Earth ("closed" = it can replicate its factories w/o anything launched

1/n Just a quick short note on GDP numbers Apr-June 2020 whether in India (YOY numbers - no seasonal adjustment) and US (quarterly numbers seasonally adjusted). By definition, when the

There has been a bit of skepticism for my model's estimate that 20% of Florida (& other states) have been infected.http://covid19-projections.com/us-fl While I'm not claiming that this is necessarily true, here

1/This is a beautifully written thread about “the wisdom of crowds”, inspired by this piece by @mjmauboussin:https://operators.macro-ops.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/ExplainingWisdom-1-1.pdf https://twitter.com/borrowed_ideas/status/1

𝑅𝑢𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑙𝑙 𝑇ℎ𝑜𝑚𝑎𝑠

For everyone complaining that current COVID19 restrictions are “overkill” and “models are wrong” or “what about cost vs benefit?”:consider this thought experiment …1/3 Imagine you and your family is in

Natalie E. Dean, PhD

“Nobody knows the truth — let’s be honest,” Dr. Ioannidis said of the prevalence figures. “But if I had to guess, I would say it is probably higher than our