Update: following today's hospital data, a cautious estimate of the number of UK excess deaths during the Covid-19 pandemic up to 18 May is

62,100

Of these, we know 51,441 have occurred, the rest are estimates.

Today, I have assessed the numbers I have been posting

1/

The chart shows:
Blue: excess deaths published weekly by the statistical agencies (ONS, NRS, NISRA)
Pink: daily estimates of these facts
Red: Estimates for the past two weeks
Green: the numbers I have published.

Result: so far, the estimates have been cautious

2/

Probably too cautious. That was largely a deliberate choice as I do not want the numbers to be alarmist.

The forecast from two weeks (50,200) ago is already lower than the known number of excess deaths so far.

3/

Tomorrow, the model expects 4,700 excess deaths

If the number is higher, all the contemporary estimate will rise. If it is lower, it will fall.

This number is a lot lower than 2 weeks ago so things have improved a lot.

It is in line with Public Health England's estimate

ENDS

No - that was 61,200 - same numbers, different order!