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Update: following today's hospital data, a cautious estimate of the number of UK excess deaths during the Covid-19 pandemic up to 18 May is
62,100
Of these, we know 51,441 have occurred, the rest are estimates.
Today, I have assessed the numbers I have been posting
1/
62,100
Of these, we know 51,441 have occurred, the rest are estimates.
Today, I have assessed the numbers I have been posting
1/
The chart shows:
Blue: excess deaths published weekly by the statistical agencies (ONS, NRS, NISRA)
Pink: daily estimates of these facts
Red: Estimates for the past two weeks
Green: the numbers I have published.
Result: so far, the estimates have been cautious
2/
Blue: excess deaths published weekly by the statistical agencies (ONS, NRS, NISRA)
Pink: daily estimates of these facts
Red: Estimates for the past two weeks
Green: the numbers I have published.
Result: so far, the estimates have been cautious
2/
Probably too cautious. That was largely a deliberate choice as I do not want the numbers to be alarmist.
The forecast from two weeks (50,200) ago is already lower than the known number of excess deaths so far.
3/
The forecast from two weeks (50,200) ago is already lower than the known number of excess deaths so far.
3/
Tomorrow, the model expects 4,700 excess deaths
If the number is higher, all the contemporary estimate will rise. If it is lower, it will fall.
This number is a lot lower than 2 weeks ago so things have improved a lot.
It is in line with Public Health England's estimate
ENDS
If the number is higher, all the contemporary estimate will rise. If it is lower, it will fall.
This number is a lot lower than 2 weeks ago so things have improved a lot.
It is in line with Public Health England's estimate
ENDS
No - that was 61,200 - same numbers, different order!
