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Youyang Gu

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Here's one danger of data:Child abuse cases are way down during this pandemic. Does that mean there's less child abuse happening? Of course not.If schools are closed and children are

Last week, Illinois reported 15,415 cases in a single day, more than Florida ever did in a single day. This is despite Illinois' population being 40% lower.Many of you probably

On the surface, Illinois has done many things "right":- Mask mandate since May 1- $5M ad campaign to encourage mask wearing- Closing indoor dining/bars at end of October- Stay at

If you're under 50, your odds of dying if you contract COVID-19 is ~0.013% or 1 in 8000. This is similar to the odds of dying in a car accident

9/22 Weekly http://covid19-projections.com Update:We forecast 23,000 (13-38k) additional reported deaths in the US by November 1 (~600/day).Nov 1 Total Deaths Forecasts:Today: 223k (213-238k)Last week: 219k (208-233k)2 weeks ago: 219k

9/15 Weekly http://covid19-projections.com Update:We forecast 24,000 (13-39k) additional reported deaths in the US by November 1 (~500/day).Nov 1 Total Deaths Forecasts:Today: 219k (208-233k)Last week: 219k (207-236k)2 weeks ago: 219k

In our update this week, we've lowered our COVID-19 projections by ~10%. We're now forecasting 42,000 (25-68k) additional deaths & 220,000 total deaths (202-244k) by November 1.See our latest projections

If you look at places like Arizona, Texas, Florida and Georgia, the reproduction number, Rt, is lower than during lockdown.Are people somehow practicing social distancing more now than during lockdown?

There has been a bit of skepticism for my model's estimate that 20% of Florida (& other states) have been infected.http://covid19-projections.com/us-fl While I'm not claiming that this is necessarily true, here

There's been increasing discussion about the role of immunity vs behavior vs interventions in the spread of COVID-19. Louisiana is a good case study because it's the only state that

Here's a thread that contains my findings regarding the relationship between true infections, reported cases, test positivity rate, and infection fatality rate for COVID-19.Full write-up: http://covid19-projections.com/estimating-true-i

Every week, I along with other researchers/modelers gather in a conference call to discuss the current state of forecasting, give presentations, and share ideas.One group always absent? IHME.They are not