#Counterfactual

I started making a long thread that should've been a blog post about the Very Bad Take supposedly serious economics/political journalists have been writing about "the cure being worse than

This thread by @NAChristakis, on the Swedish corona strategy, appears based on a simple causal fallacy. I know it sounds implausible, but let me explain. /1https://twitter.com/NAChristakis/status/1262012815663149058 Christakis's central

In the counterfactual where Hillary was in charge you’d likely have GOP governors in NV, KS, WI, MI, KY, and LA, with Paul Ryan as Speaker of the House. In

1/ Thread on using a "US vs South Korea" #Coronavirus counterfactual narrative to quantify the magnitude of Trump's failures on the #Covid19 #pandemic. This narrative leads to the Trump Coronavirus

Mike P. "Ontario Dad" Moffatt 🇨🇦🏅🏅

Interesting piece, though the first argument here is, frankly, bonkers, that there’s no recession here, simply a lockdown.Let’s consider some counterfactuals...https://twitter.com/jandrewpotter/status/1267215737497751553 Let’s imagine

Thread: Is the main benefit of a COVID vaccine health or economic activity?Or: the counter-factual matters. What would we do in the absence of or delay in a vaccine?Or: Let's

The debate about schools reopening is important given the potential economic benefits and public health risks at stake. So it's a shame that 3 bad applications of economics underpin the

There’s a nearby possible world in which even minor missteps had much deadlier consequences. Suppose Ross Douthat is right that Trump’s incompetence only accounts for about 20,000 American deaths. In

Slovakia (pop 5.5M) is attempting a mass COVID-19 screening campaign using rapid antigen tests. The public health community is going to learn a lot. Here's what I'm looking for... 1/https://spectator.sme.sk/c/22519165/coronavirus-in

Historian_Steve

There isn't a day that goes by that I wonder to myself, where did we go wrong? There are lots of valid responses. The 1980 election is one because we're

I've had a few conversations recently with people who think I overemphasise policy decisions in Covid outcomes. I think I do focus on the policy decisions a lot, and I'm

I'm having feelings about the calls for civility I'm seeing today. First of all if you are focused on civility in the face of 200K+ dead, and kids with lost

Michael R. Strain

THREAD. The success of Congress’s efforts to support the economy in this once-in-a-century crisis seems to have undermined the perceived need for those efforts to continue.My latest Bloomberg column: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti

1/ And @nytimes continues to slide further into fiction this morning with this gem: the US needs “foreign doctors” because hospitals “are scrambling to address a shortage of medical professionals...

Obviously, I don't intend to exonerate or discount Isaias's role but the historian in me thinks @RAbdiAnalyst pinning the entire turmoil in the Horn of Africa on Isaias Afwerki is

Duncan Robinson

The benefits of Brexithttps://www.economist.com/node/21786900?frsc=dg%7Ce It's the first time EU is taking another route that would have been blocked by Britain. Imagine the counterfactual. Any government of the past 30 years