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I've had a few conversations recently with people who think I overemphasise policy decisions in Covid outcomes. I think I do focus on the policy decisions a lot, and I'm just thinking out loud why that is, because I certainly don't think it's the only variable explaining things.
Lots of stuff, like the weather, is clearly playing a huge part here. There *could* be biological resistance in some parts of the world. And althought they're unquantifiable, it would be weird if there *weren't* cultural differences that had an impact on behaviour and spread!
So why focus on policy? If you're a skeptic you'd see this as a sort of McNamara fallacy, pulling on the only lever we've got in the desperate hope that it works. I don't know how likely that is, but the crucial point for me is that *pulling the lever doesn't seem to cost more*.
The countries with better outcomes don't seem to be spending more on their better tracing systems, their policies aren't, IMO, more expensive in freedom or treasure than the West's half-baked versions. If we try them and it doesn't work, fine. What would we lose?
Pulling the levers is a bad idea if there's a reasonable counterfactual where there won't be a massive recession or huge restrictions on personal freedoms anyway, but if you believe that's a plausible alternative now you are no longer living in the same world as the rest of us.
