I& #39;ve had a few conversations recently with people who think I overemphasise policy decisions in Covid outcomes. I think I do focus on the policy decisions a lot, and I& #39;m just thinking out loud why that is, because I certainly don& #39;t think it& #39;s the only variable explaining things.

Lots of stuff, like the weather, is clearly playing a huge part here. There *could* be biological resistance in some parts of the world. And althought they& #39;re unquantifiable, it would be weird if there *weren& #39;t* cultural differences that had an impact on behaviour and spread!

So why focus on policy? If you& #39;re a skeptic you& #39;d see this as a sort of McNamara fallacy, pulling on the only lever we& #39;ve got in the desperate hope that it works. I don& #39;t know how likely that is, but the crucial point for me is that *pulling the lever doesn& #39;t seem to cost more*.

The countries with better outcomes don& #39;t seem to be spending more on their better tracing systems, their policies aren& #39;t, IMO, more expensive in freedom or treasure than the West& #39;s half-baked versions. If we try them and it doesn& #39;t work, fine. What would we lose?

Pulling the levers is a bad idea if there& #39;s a reasonable counterfactual where there won& #39;t be a massive recession or huge restrictions on personal freedoms anyway, but if you believe that& #39;s a plausible alternative now you are no longer living in the same world as the rest of us.