1/ Thread on using a "US vs South Korea" #Coronavirus counterfactual narrative to quantify the magnitude of Trump's failures on the #Covid19 #pandemic. This narrative leads to the Trump Coronavirus Death Count, which stands at 11,634 unnecessary US deaths for April 8.

2/ First, some relevant historical background. Just two incumbent postwar US Presidents have declined to pursue reelection despite being eligible. In 1952, Harry Truman withdrew from the Democratic Presidential nomination after losing the March 11 New Hampshire primary.

3/ On March 31, 1968, LBJ declared on national television that he would neither pursue nor accept the Democratic nomination. In both cases, these decisions were driven by strong and growing public sentiment against the "bad wars," respectively, of Korea and Vietnam.

4/ To put hard numbers on these Presidential failures: total US Korean War dead ultimately reached ~36,000, while total US Vietnam War dead as of March 1968 was ~25,000. Meanwhile, reported #Coronavirus fatalities in the US to date are 12,908 (likely underestimated).

5/ (Note: Nation-specific #Coronavirus fatalities will be taken from the "Worldometer" website for today, April 8: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/  )

6/ The South Korea #Coronavirus Counterfactual springs from the desire to put a number on Trump Administration culpability for these deaths. There are several reasons to define such a number in a way that is transparent, justified, and easy to calculate from public data.

7/ First, while it is easy enough to say "Trump did a bad job," it is just as easy to say "No he didn't." Making a reasoned case for competence or incompetence requires specifying a counterfactual scenario: an explicit answer to the question "Where would we be otherwise?"

8/ Trump and Republicans have chosen their counterfactual: Simulations anticipating 2 million #Covid19 US deaths or more for an epidemic not countered by widespread social distancing measures. Thanks to actions of local officials, of course, such measures are now widespread.

9/ As a result of social distancing measures, and the concomitant massive hit to our economy, simulations now suggest total fatalities of 100,000 or less. Trump & Co. have hence chosen a benchmark that we will almost certainly pass.

10/ Anyone wishing to make a contrary argument will have to point to an alternative maximum number of fatalities, along with ready arguments for its reasonability. Ideally, the process of deriving the new target should be simple, transparent, and made with public data.

11/ Second, for political reasons it will be useful to adopt a single standard counterfactual narrative. This simplifies messaging and provides the media with a ready framing for any story on US #Coronavirus response.

12/ Third, the more straightforward and transparent the counterfactual narrative, the greater its chances for ready propagation and amplification through social media.

13/ Fourth, again for reasons of transparency and ease of communication, it makes sense to keep the focus on the total number of domestic #Covid19 fatalities, even though this metric is imperfect and understates the total impact of the #pandemic.

14/ Hence the South Korea #Coronavirus Counterfactual: US response to the #pandemic should be judged against S. Korea, which reported its first domestic case the same day as the US, Jan 19, and has since effectively contained it, suffering a total of 200 #Covid19 deaths.

15/ South Korea provides a fair comparison to the US because it is an economically developed democracy with an urbanized population, and because (as stated above) it reported its first domestic #Covid19 infection on the same day as the US, Jan 19.

16/ S. Korea's population of 51.7 million is 1/6.37 that of the US. Scaling fatalities by population (adopting a benchmark of total population mortality) means that the 200 S. Korea #Covid19 deaths equate to 1274 US #Covid19 deaths (total).

17/ Now, obviously South Korea has carried out a highly effective response to the #Covid19 #pandemic. But why would this make the comparison unfair? Why shouldn't we hold high expectations for our political leaders? What are they elected for, anyway?

18/ Or to make the contrary case: S. Korea has a lower per capita GDP (69% of US) and closer commercial and travel ties to China, where the #Coronavirus originated. Hence, if anything, we expect that it faced a steeper challenge than the US in confronting the present #pandemic.

19/ The South Korea #Coronavirus Counterfactual - judging the US reponse against South Korea's - is that the US could fairly have been expected to suffer 1274 #Covid19 deaths, even in a scenario where it mounted a strong and immediate response to the #pandemic, as S. Korea did.

20/ The Trump Coronavirus Death Count is the excess number of US #Covid19 deaths *beyond* what would be expected from a strong response like South Korea's. Since the US has suffered 12,908 deaths so far, the Trump Coronavirus Death Count for April 8 is: 11,634 unnecessary deaths.

21/ Now that South Korea has effectively contained the epidemic, those who wish to adopt a simpler calculation can simply subtract 1274 (or 1300) from the total US #Covid19 deaths to get their updated Trump Coronavirus Death Count over the days and weeks to come.

22/ End thread. Comments welcome, please share!