#Polling

Charlotte Swasey

charlotteeffect

One of my last pieces with DFP is up- an analysis of polling from the last year (notably including those 15 or so senate polls right before the election)Tldr DFP

People compare 2020 to 2016 polls but miss the big picture. Here's 2016 vs. 2020 polling avg in key states.PAClinton 46.3%, Trump 42.4%Biden 49.6%, Trump 44.9%MIClinton 44.5%, Trump 40.4%Biden 49.7%,

On September 18, just three weeks ago, the 538 polling average had Biden +6.7, roughly in the range it’s been all year. Today it’s Biden +10.2. For comparison, here is

5) Gary Gerstle, a great historian of white nationalism, tells me Biden is betting on a "Third Reconstruction." Are majorities edging towards an overhaul of our racial order? That would

Lots of RV polls (which show Biden with a big lead) are weighted based on census data. Which means they show what the results of the election would look like

Polling... a thread. We join polling company websites like You Gov, create a profile, answer lots of questions presented to us. Therefore the polling companies can build up a detailed

Concerning French polling 1/3: • In certain towns and districts the laws of the Republic are not applied — 86%• In France, violence grows day by day — 84%• In

Alright, remind me to never talk about Elizabeth Warren again. And I like her! But. . . never again. Anyway, I'm not doing this anymore. All I did was point

The deed is done. #8 at my polling place this morning. -requested an absentee ballot, never got it -found out the reason why I never got it was because the

The race is not tightening if you use any sort of robust methodology or look at the better polling. The tightening is almost entirely confined to a group of 3

Chaminda Jayanetti

"Labour is making ground where it needs to. The Tories are losing ground where they can't afford to."I looked under the bonnet of the polling data, and found growing doubts

Doug Johnson Hatlem

There have been 17 national polls in the field partly or fully after RBG's death where the polling outfit had a pre-Ginsburg-death published result.Average Net Change: Biden +0.1% Polling averages

Natalie Jackson

From the Democratic firms' assessment of 2020 polling error: I find this piece particularly vindicating. I've been saying from the start that likely voter modeling is part of the issue.

Kristen Soltis Anderson

KSoltisAnderson

There are a lot of polls coming out today, tomorrow, and this weekend. Before they do, looking at the data today, even assuming the polls are right, there is still

Let's talk about polls and why they matter...A THREAD1/ There is plenty of anxiety about whether the polls will be "right" this year. It's because people care a lot about

First map: If Biden overperforms current state polling averages by 2 pointsSecond map: If Trump overperforms current state polling averages by 3 points Here's "Trump overperforms current state polling averages