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There are a lot of polls coming out today, tomorrow, and this weekend. Before they do, looking at the data today, even assuming the polls are right, there is still a path for Trump. It is narrow, but it is real.
Current polling averages in the Sun Belt states - FL, NC, AZ, TX, GA - all have Trump in striking distance. They are tied or within just a point or two. Not enough for me to say confidently which way they'll go. If they all go Trump, that's ALMOST enough...
On the flip side, if the polls are right, Michigan and Wisconsin are gone for Trump. But he doesn't need them if he's won the Sun Belt....as long as he also holds Pennsylvania. Current polling averages have Biden ahead, but not comfortably.
There's a scenario where the map looks like this. And this scenario DOES NOT REQUIRE THE POLLS TO BE WRONG.
However, I would note that given how tight things are as of this morning in the polling averages in many big states, this is ALSO a scenario that is possible.
In conclusion:
Final note: we have a boatload of polling data still to come out. So, this analysis only valid as of October 29 at 11:30 am eastern time. Exclusions may apply, offer not valid on previous purchases.
