First map: If Biden overperforms current state polling averages by 2 points

Second map: If Trump overperforms current state polling averages by 3 points

Here's "Trump overperforms current state polling averages in the Midwest + Rust Belt by 7 points, and polling averages are right on target everywhere else." A weird one for sure.

Trump win map 1: He overperforms by a little over 5 points in all swing states (tipping PA and AZ)

Trump win map 2: He overperforms by ~2 in most swing states, and by 7 in Midwest+Rust Belt