There have been 17 national polls in the field partly or fully after RBG& #39;s death where the polling outfit had a pre-Ginsburg-death published result.

Average Net Change: Biden +0.1%

Polling averages like 538& #39;s, NYT, and RCP& #39;s moved in Biden& #39;s favor for other reasons this week.

Those reasons for Biden movement are mostly about having a bunch of new or irregular polls come out that are more favorable to Biden, many of them pretty patently partisan Dem firms (e.g. GBAO/Global, Data for Progress, Harvard/Politico/SSRS, Marquette online, Survey Monkey).

Meanwhile, the state polls moved in Trump& #39;s favor slightly over the course of the last week to 10 days. The overall effect was stagnation after tightening t0 a 6.5% to 7% race.

Trump has very little time now to close the gap. Debates, October surprises, polling errors, and Biden& #39;s laughable campaign skills means he has a real chance to do so.

Nate Cohn also explicitly said he moved the race back from a 6% race to a 7% race because he re-read what USC panel polling meant with the switch to 14-day modelling. I had already accounted for that and USC& #39;s Biden lead has shrunk by 1.1% since Labor Day in the 14-Day model.