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There have been 17 national polls in the field partly or fully after RBG's death where the polling outfit had a pre-Ginsburg-death published result.
Average Net Change: Biden +0.1%
Polling averages like 538's, NYT, and RCP's moved in Biden's favor for other reasons this week.
Average Net Change: Biden +0.1%
Polling averages like 538's, NYT, and RCP's moved in Biden's favor for other reasons this week.
Those reasons for Biden movement are mostly about having a bunch of new or irregular polls come out that are more favorable to Biden, many of them pretty patently partisan Dem firms (e.g. GBAO/Global, Data for Progress, Harvard/Politico/SSRS, Marquette online, Survey Monkey).
Meanwhile, the state polls moved in Trump's favor slightly over the course of the last week to 10 days. The overall effect was stagnation after tightening t0 a 6.5% to 7% race.
Trump has very little time now to close the gap. Debates, October surprises, polling errors, and Biden's laughable campaign skills means he has a real chance to do so.
Nate Cohn also explicitly said he moved the race back from a 6% race to a 7% race because he re-read what USC panel polling meant with the switch to 14-day modelling. I had already accounted for that and USC's Biden lead has shrunk by 1.1% since Labor Day in the 14-Day model.
