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People compare 2020 to 2016 polls but miss the big picture. Here& #39;s 2016 vs. 2020 polling avg in key states.
PA
Clinton 46.3%, Trump 42.4%
Biden 49.6%, Trump 44.9%
MI
Clinton 44.5%, Trump 40.4%
Biden 49.7%, Trump 42.8%
WI
Clinton 46.4%, Trump 40.5%
Biden 50.3%, Trump 43.8%
PA
Clinton 46.3%, Trump 42.4%
Biden 49.6%, Trump 44.9%
MI
Clinton 44.5%, Trump 40.4%
Biden 49.7%, Trump 42.8%
WI
Clinton 46.4%, Trump 40.5%
Biden 50.3%, Trump 43.8%
Biden& #39;s lead is both larger than Clinton& #39;s lead but also he& #39;s at or near 50% in all of these states! Clinton and Trump were both lower in 2016, meaning there were a ton of undecided voters. We credit those undecideds for a late swing towards Trump for the win. We can actually...
Look at Clinton& #39;s final vote percentage in these states and her polling averages were spot on! However, her support was low enough that a full undecided swing to Trump made it not enough to win. Let& #39;s take a look at her polling averages in these states vs. actual vote.
PA
Polling avg: 46.3%; Actual: 47.5%
MI
Polling avg: 44.5%; Actual: 47.3%
WI
Polling avg: 46.4%; Actual: 46.5%
The polls didn& #39;t overestimate Clinton& #39;s support. Instead, they either (a) underestimated Trump& #39;s support or (b) couldn& #39;t foresee a last second undecided shift!
Polling avg: 46.3%; Actual: 47.5%
MI
Polling avg: 44.5%; Actual: 47.3%
WI
Polling avg: 46.4%; Actual: 46.5%
The polls didn& #39;t overestimate Clinton& #39;s support. Instead, they either (a) underestimated Trump& #39;s support or (b) couldn& #39;t foresee a last second undecided shift!
So IF polls are "off" like they were in 2016 (big if), Trump still really has very little opportunity to be ahead of Biden since Biden& #39;s support is so high. You& #39;d actually need Biden& #39;s support to lower and then Trump to get almost all the undecideds for Trump to win.
Of course, the big old caveat to all of this is we& #39;re still 38 days out from Election Day and, even though polls have been strikingly stable, shifts could happen based on debate performances, October surprises, or other events.
