Thread by @cjayanetti, "Labour is making ground where it needs to. The Tories are losing [...]

"Labour is making ground where it needs to. The Tories are losing ground where they can't afford to."

I looked under the bonnet of the polling data, and found growing doubts about the government among Tory voters. https://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2020/10/28/polling-deep-dive-shows-labour-taking-first-steps-towards-po

Opposition starting to win over middle aged voters and make up ground in towns and rural seats.

What you see in headline polling data is the views of those saying they would vote for a particular party.

But to get a fuller picture of public opinion, look at the figures for people who don't know who they'd vote for.

That's what I did. https://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2020/10/28/polling-deep-dive-shows-labour-taking-first-steps-towards-po

Opposition starting to win over middle aged voters and make up ground in towns and rural seats.

This is the overall picture over the course of this year, from the Opinium polling series - YouGov and other pollsters have similar.

The big Tory lead opens up further and then slams shut post-Cummingsgate

You know this already.

https://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2020/10/28/polling-deep-dive-shows-labour-taking-first-steps-towards-po

But look at Conservative voters from the last election. As you can see below, their support for the Tories is fading - but Labour is making little headway.

Instead, these voters are increasingly heading to the 'Don't Know' column. https://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2020/10/28/polling-deep-dive-shows-labour-taking-first-steps-towards-po

Now let's look at Leave voters. Same story: Labour making little headway - instead Leave voters are increasingly unsure about either party, having mostly backed Johnson last time out. https://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2020/10/28/polling-deep-dive-shows-labour-taking-first-steps-towards-po

So where *is* Labour making headway?

Well, among Remainers and Lib Dems, unsurprisingly. But also look at this.

This is one of the key age brackets for Labour - 45-54-year olds. Labour is rallying with these middle-aged voters. https://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2020/10/28/polling-deep-dive-shows-labour-taking-first-steps-towards-po

And here are voters in seats Labour has lost since 2005. The margin of error is larger than with headline polls, but you can see the trend over time: Labour up, Tories down. https://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2020/10/28/polling-deep-dive-shows-labour-taking-first-steps-towards-po

So, overall Labour is making tentative progress among some key voters groups, while Tory voters grow increasingly uncertain about the government.

There's a huge way to go before the next election, but the party has made solid ground in six months. https://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2020/10/28/polling-deep-dive-shows-labour-taking-first-steps-towards-po

Opposition starting to win over middle aged voters and make up ground in towns and rural seats.

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