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One interesting--and perhaps extremely telling--thing about the race is that there's a big disconnect between the way the Trump team (and maybe everyone) thinks Trump can win, and his actual relative strengths at the moment https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/wisconsin_biden_51_trump_43
My colleagues today summarize that assumption about the president's path here: win in the relatively white, working class Midwest by polarizing the electorate along racial lines
And I think I basically share that assumption. If the president's not going to win in this way, how else is he going to do it? Flip NV... NM? Get back to 2016 levels among white college graduates?
But the polls say that white voters are actually the president's biggest weakness right now, at least compared to 2016. That includes white rural voters. It includes white voters without a degree.
And it's not like there's evidence that the president is weak among white voters *in spite* of an otherwise popular message on race, or something. The polls show, over and over, that the president is relatively weak on race, criminal justice, protests, and prefer Biden
Back in the winter/spring and all the way back to 2018, there were plenty of polls showing that the president was highly competitive and even leading in Wisconsin. Those polls are largely gone--even as the president embraces a strategy purportedly targeted at that state
All together, the polls just don't really support that this is a great strategy for Trump. If it was, shouldn't this be a good moment for Trump in WI? Shouldn't white voters be the relative strength? Shouldn't he poll well on the issue? It just doesn't line up.
