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New NYT/Siena polls find a close contest in three states Trump carried easily in 2016:
Georgia: 45-45
Iowa: Biden 45, Trump 42
Texas: Trump 46, Biden 43 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/24/us/politics/trump-biden-polls-texas-georgia-iowa.html
Georgia: 45-45
Iowa: Biden 45, Trump 42
Texas: Trump 46, Biden 43 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/24/us/politics/trump-biden-polls-texas-georgia-iowa.html
Democrats also appear competitive in Senate races in all three states, with a lot of undecided voters:
TX: Cornyn 43, Hegar 37
GA: Perdue 41, Ossoff 38
GA special: Loeffler 23, Warnock/Collins 19
Iowa: Greenfield 42, Ernst 40
TX: Cornyn 43, Hegar 37
GA: Perdue 41, Ossoff 38
GA special: Loeffler 23, Warnock/Collins 19
Iowa: Greenfield 42, Ernst 40
The Texas poll was a bit unusual for our surveys in two respects that are worth noting.
1) Biden and Trump were tied among voters who said they were almost certain or very likely to vote, which is a pretty common LV screen for other pollsters
1) Biden and Trump were tied among voters who said they were almost certain or very likely to vote, which is a pretty common LV screen for other pollsters
In our experience, an LV model that incorporates vote history outperform self-reported vote--even by a lot. But I have to say, fairly emphatically, that Texas was not one of those states in 2018, probably because there have been so few competitive elections there.
So, at least from the perspective of the way we think about defining the likely electorate, Texas is a state where turnout is particularly uncertain and the upside is likely on the side of Mr. Biden. It's something we may think about tailoring a bit more in the future
I promise that if we were herding that we absolutely would not have found Biden up in Iowa lol https://twitter.com/LucPicat/status/1309073769890279425?s=20
