#Uncertainty

Happy to share that our new paper with M. Marinacci on #uncertainty and #climatechange has just been published @SpringerNaturehttps://rdcu.be/b7snR Uncertainty is of particular importance when considering decisions with global, long-l

Carl T. Bergstrom

I have a very basic question about the @IHME_UW model. To me, the cone of uncertainty is very odd here. It leaps to a maximum one day into the future

Dr Raul Pacheco-Vega

Thread on my insistence in discussing uncertainty in health policy decision-making related to COVID-19.When I was doing my PhD, I took a class with Dr. Terre Satterfield: “Science, Technology and

alex rubinsteyn

Maybe dumb/simple question: every time I see #Covid19 model projections (maybe often IHME?) they have maximal uncertainty for the next few days and uncertainty diminishes over time. Isn't this...backwards? Is

Today I'm trying to do a mini lit review on communicating uncertainty in maps of species distributions. It's astounding how many papers don't bother to do this at all. Can't

Ensemble Capital

Interview with ⁦@AnnieDuke⁩ on applying the lessons she learned dominating the competition in poker to financial markets.https://www.barrons.com/articles/this-famous-poker-player-can-help-investors-play-a-tough-hand-51587727800 On of her key points i

The IHME lowered estimate of 60,000 U.S. COVID-19 deaths assumes that social distancing measures continue ***until the end of May.***They aren't based on reopening the economy now.This very important tidbit

These @youyanggu projections are interesting. If his model had to make a modal projection, it would be that the US will plateau somewhere near the recent total of ~1,300 deaths

1/ I've noticed that a lot of people who pride themselves on being "rigorous" or "critical thinkers" have this simple heuristic that anecdotes = weak evidence. But I disagree! It

When #COVID19 arrived in Washington, @ChristianCaple and I were emotionally distracted. We were processing the whirlwind couple months that started with unexpected news of our first baby, followed by a

Let me collectively subtweet the predictors and their scrum over forecasting uncertainty. I only have the ability to understand such things intuitively and not in any sense of putting formulas

Stephanie Ressort

"It was a great and gentle way to be guided to growth without it feeling dry and like hard work"We are far more resilient than we know. Times are tough

Dr Raul Pacheco-Vega

I woke up and started working on finishing revisions to my book. As I was making coffee I finally realized why these times are so stressful. It's because of the

Becky | TwentyFree.co

I've known for ages that I need to increase my tolerance for uncertaintyI'm a planner, and flexibility/spontaneity do not come naturally I feel like I've just been thrown into the

Courtney Milan 🦖

The application process for PPP was designed so that the vast majority of small businesses would not know how to apply, and the things they asked you to attest to

1/ In building any know-how intensive product, you face an essential uncertainty in project schedule and cost.Know-how intensive product, new team that has not built the exact product before and