Happy to share that our new paper with M. Marinacci on #uncertainty and #climatechange has just been published @SpringerNature
Uncertainty is of particular importance when considering decisions with global, long-lasting and potentially irreversible consequences (e.g. decisions related to #ClimateChange )
The “ #uncertainty” encountered when dealing with climate change goes well beyond the classical notion of “ #risk” typically used by economists.
In a nutshell: “ #risk” refers to situations in which we know the probabilities of an event. “ #Uncertainty” to situations in which it is not the case
Most decisions (eg. related to #ClimateChange ) are made are made under “ #uncertainty” rather than “ #risk”. Why? Because: too little information is available, different predictions exist, resulting from different models or datasets, or from different experts’ opinions.
It is therefore important to use models developed to deal with #uncertainty rather the ones originally developed to deal with #risk, in problems involving uncertainty
In the paper, we review recent decision criteria under #uncertainty that have been proposed and apply them to a simple #ClimateChange decision problem
Our objective is to offer guidance to policy makers who face uncertainty when designing climate policies