#Prediction

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itrulyknowchina

if true, this sheds on light on the scale and depth of a problematic decision-making process in Beijing that's probably outside the usual imagination of outsiderswhich is "fooled by own

Alex Imas

alexoimas

Inspired by recent critiques on the empirical validity of prospect theory, I'm excited to share new paper explicitly testing dynamic predictions of PT.Punchline: Using field data + pre-registered experiments, find

John Cook

johnfocook

1/12 Just deconstructed & debunked myth “Models downgraded COVID-19 deaths from 100,000+ to 60,000 so we can relax social distancing,” with Phil Newell at @climatenexus. Here’s a graphic explaining the

Prof. Gavin Yamey MD MPH

GYamey

The reopening of UK universities: THREAD.With a rising number of new daily infections, clearly there is a risk of clusters/outbreaks from reopening unis & bringing all students back to town

genesius

gloamingwhale

Eleven predictions, presented without judgment. First, Biden defeats Trump in November in a historic landslide—think FDR over Hoover, Nixon over McGovern, or Regan over Carter and Mondale. Second, and in

Anice Lajnef

AniceLajnef

La #finance est à la fois le commerce du TEMPS (taux directeur) et la science de la PRÉDICTION (taux long, prime de risque).La finance utilise les mathématiques pour prédire un

Tom Pride

ThomasPride

A couple of serious points about the #YouGov MRP poll showing a Tory majority.Yes, YouGov was founded by a Tory but I don't believe its biased because of that. I'm

Best for Britain

BestForBritain

There’s a perfect economic storm gathering, and we’ve got new data that shows just how significant the decision to extend transition or not could be for this country and its

Chris Smith

cdsmith789

I've just finished reading Tony Evans' piece response to the Anfield/ Pier Head incidents. There are so many unfair and unrealistic comments on Joe Anderson's response (15 by my count)

Mike Lawler

mikeandallie

1/n Back in March @nntaleb had a tweet about SIR models that got me interested studying models of virus spread a bit more.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1239171413342289921 2/n As I often do, I started

Jon-US Senate candidate MD 2022

Johnheretohelp

All these "Celebs" and important people , who claimed loudly they had Coronavirus and made a big show of it. Actually had a mild form. They got it when the

Ben

Strickland__Ben

Rating Woodgate’s tenure at MiddlesbroughPart 1 - August to November.Will do a part 2 if this is well received[Thread] Luton 3-3 BoroAs Fletcher scored I thought to myself “The first

TXinTimeOut

TXstillWatching

I brought ccr5-delta32 mutants, -rh blood types, and using ccr5 antagonists as possible treatment back when Pradhan published the "Uncanny similarity of unique inserts in the 2019-nCoV spike protein to

Adam Kucharski

AdamJKucharski

I think the below modelling output provides a useful illustration of how to evaluate forecasts. A short thread... 1/https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1303011885348990976?s=20 First, let's be clear about difference between a '

j is working for bangtwice cb⁷⁺⁹

armyoncecult

the most iconic fancams/vids in armyonce stan twitter history — a thread @BTS_twt @JYPETWICE nayeon laughing at seokjin @ gayo namjoon and hoseok bopping to what is love, truly a

Corey Wallace

CoreyJWallace

Weekly COVID-19 in Japan Stats Update-at the critical two point after the state of emergency was declared. A mixture of bad but also some not so bad this week. Perhaps