1/12 Just deconstructed & debunked myth “Models downgraded COVID-19 deaths from 100,000+ to 60,000 so we can relax social distancing,” with Phil Newell at @climatenexus. Here’s a graphic explaining the fallacy in this myth (borrowed from a RGB metaphor). https://crankyuncle.com/critical-thinking-about-covid-19-downgraded-death-toll/

2/12 Because forecasts were downgraded down to 60K, some argue that models exaggerated COVID-19 danger & we can relax social distancing measures. This fails to take into account that estimates changed because social distancing practices were successful in lowering future impacts.

3/12 This “let’s relax social distancing” argument, to borrow a metaphor from Ruth Bader Ginsberg, is “like throwing away your umbrella in a rainstorm because you are not getting wet.” https://sbmblog.typepad.com/sbm-blog/2013/06/opinionated-metaphors-shelby-county.html

4/12 It’s worth digging into RBG’s metaphor a little deeper. This argument takes the form:
Premise 1: The forecast was rain
Premise 2: I took an umbrella and am dry.
Conclusion: I didn’t need an umbrella.

5/12 This argument is logically invalid: the conclusion doesn’t follow from the premises. Just because you’re dry doesn’t necessarily mean that you don’t need an umbrella – quite the contrary if the umbrella is the reason that you’re dry.

6/12 Following our critical thinking method of analysing misinformation, arguments that are logically invalid usually contain an unstated assumption or hidden premise. In this case, the unstated assumption is that because I’m dry, it mustn’t be raining. https://crankyuncle.com/using-critical-thinking-to-analyze-misinformation/

7/12 Adding the 3rd premise makes the argument logically valid. But now we can identify more clearly where this argument goes wrong. The third premise commits the false cause fallacy, mistakenly attributing dryness to lack of rain when it’s the umbrella that protected from rain.

8/12 The umbrella protecting us from COVID-19 is social distancing. Thanks to social distancing measures, forecast have been downgraded from 100,000+ to ~60,000. The argument for relaxing social distancing takes the form:

9/12 The 3rd premise commits false cause fallacy, incorrectly attributing downgrading of death toll projections to model error & reduced threat of COVID-19. Rather, it was extra data showing the efficacy of social distancing measures that resulted in the downgrading.

10/12 Continuing with umbrella analogy, a prediction of 60K deaths is not “dry”. Downplaying this level of tragedy is abhorrent. Failure to practice social distancing in early stages of the pandemic is why U.S. deaths are increasing so dramatically https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1248353876786413569

11/12 The COVID-19 crisis underscores the damaging nature of misinformation and science denial. Failing to listen to experts and scientific evidence, whether it be about climate change, the ozone hole, acid rain, or coronavirus, can have disastrous consequences for society.

12/12 Lastly, big thx to Phil Newell at @climatenexus who first suggested to me the RGB metaphor as a possible cartoon to debunk this latest COVID-19 myth. Am always open to suggestions of powerful metaphors exposing flawed logic in science misinformation! https://crankyuncle.com/critical-thinking-about-covid-19-downgraded-death-toll/