A couple of serious points about the #YouGov MRP poll showing a Tory majority.
Yes, YouGov was founded by a Tory but I don't believe its biased because of that. I'm sure YouGov are trying to genuinely give a real snapshot of opinion.
But it's exactly that. An attempt at ...

... taking a snapshot of opinion at the time it was taken.
It's not supposed to be, isn't claimed to be a prediction of what will happen on 12th December.
Political opinion polling is notoriously difficult to do. Weighting, turn out are particularly difficult to apply. Imagine...

... an election only had 10 people voting for something and you were able to ask ALL of them a couple of weeks before they voted, how they are going to vote. You'd still get the final result wrong. Because two changed their minds, one lied to you (happens more than you think)...

... and three didn't bother to vote on the day.
That's why polling companies get it wrong sometimes. The theory that YouGov and others are giving out false results to favour the Tories or whatever I'm afraid is nonsense. Polling companies want to get it right, not least for ...

... commercial reasons. Also the 'YouGov are favouring the Tories because they are pro-Tory' doesn't stand up to logic.
It's actually worse for the Tories if their electorate thinks they are heading for an easy win. It means those three who didn't bother to vote on the day are...

... more likely to be their supporters. Apathy and over-confidence are real turn out killers for parties. they all know this, hence Cummings' blogpost today, the same day as the YouGov poll: https://dominiccummings.com/2019/11/27/on-the-referendum-34-batsignal-dont-let-corbyn-sturgeon-cheat-a-second-referendum-with-millions-of-foreign-votes/
It's a 'get-the-vote-out' call to Leavers.
But let's get ...

... back to the #YouGov MRP poll and what it means.
First of all, the fieldwork for this poll was a week ago. This means it was made before the recent closing of the gap (as shown by several other polls in the last few days) and so I would be prett certain is based on a much ...

.... bigger Tory lead than we have at present (remember these are snapshots in time, and can change a lot in short time). Labour only need to be within around 5 or 6 % points behind the Tories to deny Johnson an overall majority. With the polls narrowing daily (as they did in ...

... a similar fashion in 2017) it shows me there is a very good chance we are heading for a hung parliament.
Looking more closely at the details of the polling, it seems the poll has not taken into account the recent surge in voter registrations, a large percentage (65%?) of ...

... whom were young voters and more likely to vote Anyone But Tory. I would presume someone who has bothered to register will be more bothered to vote (but who knows? Young voters are notoriously apathetic I'm afraid to say).
It also matters where these voters are. If it's ...

... just piling up votes in Labour safe seats (for example) it will make no difference to the outcome.
IMO there could also be a kind of 'shy Labour' vote to throw into the equation. I think we saw this in 2017. Voters don;t always tell pollsters the truth about how they will...

... vote, even though the results are presented anonymous. In the 980s we saw a 'shy Tory' voting phenomenon which meant pollsters often underestimated the Tory vote because people were too shy t admit they were going to vote Tory.
With all the smears about Corbyn ...

... supposedly being a Czech spy (spoiler, he's not) or antisemitic (he's not) it's possible more people than you might think will vote Labour (their policies are very popular) but not admit to it.
So to sum up. I think we're heading for another hung parliament, if the polls ...

... keep narrowing as they have been, and as I would expect them to. Added to this that there could also be an underestimation of Labour support due to new registrations and 'shy' voters makes this scenario more likely IMO.
Of course, nobody knows what is going to happen on ...

... the actual election day, not even YouGov with all its new-fangled methodology.
But one thing we do know. Turnout matters.
We need to not just change people's minds but GET THE VOTE OUT. Talk to friends, family, workmates.
Oh - and social media matters. Share, follow, write.