Read on Twitter
if true, this sheds on light on the scale and depth of a problematic decision-making process in Beijing that's probably outside the usual imagination of outsiders
which is
"fooled by own propaganda" might be far more serious than outsiders believe https://twitter.com/rhokilpatrick/status/1275296922274639872
which is
"fooled by own propaganda" might be far more serious than outsiders believe https://twitter.com/rhokilpatrick/status/1275296922274639872
One of Beijing's main explanations behind the unrest in HK is the city has terrible housing and huge economic disparity and people on the streets are ostensibly protesting for democracy but "in fact" "in their hearts" they are "driven" to the streets b/c of housing and disparity
It's certainly true disparity and in particular housing is a significant problem in HK that for years haven't been tackled and people are discontent on these issues
But OF COURSE that's NOT the (at least the main) reason people have been on the streets.
But OF COURSE that's NOT the (at least the main) reason people have been on the streets.
They are for democracy, liberty, rule of law, autonomy, judicial independence, etc., and they tell everyone about it, on Twitter, on TV, in person, etc.
That's why. That's it.
But Beijing is reluctant to publicly acknowledge that (we didn't/don't know its internal assessment)
That's why. That's it.
But Beijing is reluctant to publicly acknowledge that (we didn't/don't know its internal assessment)
b/c publicly acknowledging that will, in the wording and phrasing, in one way or another, one would have to include some expressions or at least hints that democracy/liberty/rule of law/autonomy had been curtailed in HK, which can only explain why HKers are protesting now
so, in public, Beijing never accepts much less publicizes or analyzes the reason of HK protests being about democracy, liberty, rule of law, autonomy.
But it has to give its/Beijing's narrative on why HKers were protesting, and the narrative has been the protests reflect
But it has to give its/Beijing's narrative on why HKers were protesting, and the narrative has been the protests reflect
the deep-level socio-economic problems of HK, about which housing is the most prominent, as well as foreign interference, and a few others perhaps.
Now here is the key question:
does the leadership in Beijing in their hearts, privately, know its own narrative is bullshit?
Now here is the key question:
does the leadership in Beijing in their hearts, privately, know its own narrative is bullshit?
I believe outsiders usually tend to believe the leadership in Beijing (which is difficult to define: who are they? above what level) knows perfectly well it's about democracy/liberty/autonomy and not about housing/disparity, but Beijing just won't admit it publicly.
BUT BUT BUT
BUT BUT BUT
But I'm increasingly inclined to draw another conclusion: the leadership has been more and more frequently fooled by its own propaganda to the extent that it's very possible if not probable that leaders really, at least in terms of policymaking, believe its own public narrative
That the outside observation - that the CCP is just playing dumb on the outside and won't admit it in public but privately in their Zhongnanhai Compound they know perfectly well the real reason, which is completely different from Beijing's public narrative - is probably wrong.
Otherwise, if they are just playing dumb, why would they seriously go to such length to studying spend so much capital (it's not cheap at all, both politically and economically) in land reclamation and just gift it to HK (which is no small deal in Chinese political context)?
It sounds like Beijing is seriously tackling the housing crisis and in the process, the leaders might even believe they are doing a huge favor to HK and HKers who should be very grateful for that.
I don't think they would really try this without deciding this is hugely important
I don't think they would really try this without deciding this is hugely important
My hypothesis could very well be overly simplistic but I recall there were credible reports that on the eve of 区议会选举 the Legislative Council election that Beijing had really believed that the establishment parties would win and possibly win big.
Which was preposterous
Which was preposterous
But that they really thought they would win is amazing - with an overwhelming majority of HK voters adamantly against Beijing on key issues, how could they make such a preposterous prediction?
@BeijingPalmer at the time wrote sth but I can't find it now
@BeijingPalmer at the time wrote sth but I can't find it now
so my take from all of the above is outsiders must NOT overestimate Beijing's fact-based decision-making. Alternative facts as a result of Beijing's own chokehold control on speech are perhaps deeply embedded in Beijing's decision-making process, leading to poor-quality decisions
This may be very difficult to fathom for people used to free speech and open society: how could things that are just plain out there, very easy to see and describe, ended up being characterized as something completely different in a closed and controlled information environment?
Well, that's the magic and payback from authoritarianism.
There are outsiders believing that yes publicly all the Chinese media and pundits will toe the Party line which outsiders could understand, but on the inside/internal channels the Chinese hierarchy will report the truth?
There are outsiders believing that yes publicly all the Chinese media and pundits will toe the Party line which outsiders could understand, but on the inside/internal channels the Chinese hierarchy will report the truth?
That's what I used to believe. But I increasingly doubt it. Because external or internal, everyone faces the same 大环境 big environment/atmosphere/incentive, the rules are the same, what are the institutions and rules to make sure truth is reported internally?
