Trump is #actually pretty bad at politics. That's why his (net) approval rating has been historically stable and almost perennially low, and why he will very likely become the country's next elected one-term president (only the fifth since 1900). He's simply not good at this. https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1313556681826107392

Trump's a minority pres who won the White House by drawing an inside straight in a few important states among a declining voting bloc. Since then, he has needed to expand his base to win re-election. But he has only ever catered to it—every time shrinking his electoral prospects.

If Trump wins again, his victory will be attributable in large part to years of trickery and attacks against higher election turnout. The simple fact of today's GOP is that it is a minority party, in power due only to electoral institutions that disproportionately advantage them.

A key question the GOP post-Trump (be it 2020 or '24) is whether leadership spots its eventual demographic doom and decides to become a party that actually seeks new voters, transitioning our two-party system into a healthier & competitive, tho not majoritarian, one. (I doubt it)

Given how well the GOP adopted its 2012 postmortem (not at all) my hunch is that their electoral connection is already locked into a doom loop for democracy, where they keep destabilizing the process to preserve power until the American experiment ends in a spectacular explosion.