10% chance of a trifecta? color me skeptical, very skeptical

The one huge thing I learned from modeling this year is that it is a mistake to model uncertainty as uniform over time. Polarization makes elections much easier to predict (on balance) today versus, say, 1970. I think that's making Nate's models too uncertain across the board.

If people in the media are to take one thing away from the theory behind our models, it's that how we think about certainty in a time when voter behavior is constrained by very predictable forces can lead to better predictions, especially earlier in the year, in modern elections.

(The other thing is that fundamentals models should definitely have presidential approval ratings in them.)

The thing about incorporating polarization into your model is that we have data other than just election returns to know it's the right decision. We have tons of polling microdata that says the coefficient on party -> vote has increased over time. https://twitter.com/ftrodriguez/status/1308839060497141765