My avg of live phone polls over the past month has Biden performing about ~10pts better (on margin) among non-college whites than Clinton did. Online data (YouGov & UCLA Nationscape) are similar.

This shift impacts EC outcomes much more than marginal differences w/ BIPOC voters.

(NB: This is still true, though the miscalibration in coverage is less egregious, in Florida where we are seeing some real change among Latinos.)

Given these huge shifts among non-college whites (who make up ~40% of the 2020 VEP!), one thing that keeps bugging me is how some Beltway pundit types are tracking Biden's gains/losses relative to June instead of Nov 2016. Their swing to Biden alone nearly decides the election.

Instead of covering this huge, election-making shift — esp important for the Midwest — many pundits are laser-focused on mildly shifting ground in FL. I think they're missing the bigger story, both in terms of overall demo balance & what will impact the electoral college more.

5/5 Since 2016, the story of Trump's victory has been about non-col whites revolting against Clinton. Now, a significant number are back in the D column. That's a huge puzzle and interesting story all by itself! But people are focused on other groups because... horse race?

Bonus 1/2: Maybe it's hubris, but it doesn't seem like this election is all that hard to figure out. Non-col whites who didn't like Clinton are more likely to vote Biden. Modest racial depolarization elsewhere doesn't hurt him much in light of this. Thus, he's up big.

Bonus 2/2: Another way to say this is that sexism was highly correlated with voting against Clinton in 2016. Biden is not a woman, so naturally does better than she does.

That + covid + economy + 4 years of low approval ratings puts Trump in a big hole for re-election.

OK, bonus 3/2: Another thing that's so frustrating is that 2020 looks very similar to 2018! Back then, a lot of Beltway types ignored the Dem shift among non-col whites & rural voters. So we've seen this coming from a mile away and other analysts are just.. looking the other way.

That last tweet in response to this: https://twitter.com/VeveJones007/status/1305927793532837888

and I promise this thread is over now, bye