#NNTaleb

@nntaleb NEW PROBABILITY/STATISTICS PUZZLEA casino has 10 Roulette wheels. You have learned that one of the wheels is defective and has one of its 38 numbers occur 10% too often.

Without further ado, a list of blockable offenses according to @nntaleb (who once blocked me, forcing me to create a new account (don't block me bro))Source: https://twitter.com/search?q=%40nntaleb%20block&src=typd&lang=en- idio

1/2Framed in context of advanced lifter as there are a lot of answers when dealing with novices:A true 1RM is ramped up to over time: 10-12 weeks and then cycle

Stoic in the Mountains

For now I walk to work and back, incorporating time daily to #flaneur and reflect. Pondering my choice to leave country living for the city and @nntaleb points on assymetric

Emily Deans MD 👻

evolutionarypsy

Here is the public health mainstream vs math fight here, and I think personally biased by a thought of seasonal respiratory viruses being spread more by fomites, very close contact/droplets

Branko Milanovic

The new virus is a great confirmation of @nntaleb distinction btw phenomena where we can use the knowledge derived from Mediocristan and the phenomena that belong to Extremistan and where

You should look at @nntaleb’s efforts to debunk IQ to start with. Differences in intelligence/s exist somewhere, but we probably overrate our ability to define it, let alone measure it—IQ

1/ situation you can see coming a mile away and curious what can be done about it. People like @nntaleb and others familiar with math, risk, and/or pandemics have long

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Not surprising given my analysis of the Marseilles data (see tweet w/the Mathematica file). The question is how large the effect.Also why the smear campaign ag. Raoult? OK, he's the

The main problem with statistics is the concept of the null hypothesis. @nntaleb Replacement concept: Space of possibilities. Example:COVID: Which disease is the "null hypothesis" Flu? SARS?Correct: Consider the space

"IYI" - framing of hypocrite, but in terms of status seeking + failed praxis among leaders. Taleb's 95 thesis?Ref:https://en.m.wiktionary.org/wiki/do_as_I_say_and_not_as_I_do https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/860893007922556930 Why fav

The toughest problem in capital allocation with infra managers is the lag between investment results and fundraising cycles. A manager can raise fund II and sometimes even fund III entirely

I am currently making my way through Anti-fragile and How To Take Smart Notes. And a thought crossed my mind, which @roamhacker very kindly suggested I share with #roamcult. So

David Boxenhorn

Quarantine Regions, thread1. To head off future pandemics, we should divide the world into quarantine regions, now. These can be likened to the compartments of a submarine. People understand that

Jeremy McLellan

Just finished the Incerto by @nntaleb and it occurs to me that the local extended family serves as personal insurance against black swans. Throwing the elderly under the bus during

The debate on voluntary infection-and-quarantine coming up again. Estimates of COVID CFR for 20—40 y.o.s is around 0.1%. (Selecting on those without underlying conditions would likely make this significantly lower.)https://www.thelancet.com/journals/