Simon DeDeo, Discover and Read the Best of Twitter Threads by @SimonDeDeo

Simon DeDeo

SimonDeDeo

If climate activists wanted to crash Bitcoin, what could they do? e.g., is it possible to DDoS the miners, trigger unintended forks by splitting the network, etc. The goal here

Attaching probabilities to beliefs may be a useful tool in Bayesian statistics, but is it meaningful? Consider 538: as their models push above 90% for Biden, they are reaching new

For much of my career I assumed people *knew* claims like these were political theater and not to be taken seriously.But now I think, more and more, that it’s important

Feynman wisdom is that you don’t truly understand something until you can explain it to a newcomer. This gets confused with two seemingly similar claims, however, both of which are

Time-reversed version: what’s the longest horizon, looking *backwards*, that we’d think had insight into our needs today, could have reasonably anticipated then and, through planning, enabled us to achieve them?https://twitter.com/Simon

So—probability. Do we really need it? This has been on my mind since 2017, when I finally sat down to think through quantum theory. (/n) One thing that’s always struck

Great paper by Douven on IBE (vs Bayesianism). An ergodicity argument against Bayes à la @ole_b_peters and @nntaleb—Bayes may be "optimal", but only because it does well on exponentially unlikely

Two possibilities: GPT-3 is very close to some kind of general intelligence, OR we are very easily tricked by the epiphenomena of thinking. (...) My prejudice is the latter, although

There’s a fundamental aporia in discussion of cancel culture: every group—including those represented in the Harper’s letter—has things you can’t say. No meta-principle can allow for direct, rational discussion of

Purely as a practical matter, a police force without legitimacy can not enforce the law. Anyone who has taught high school (or saw a teacher lose control of a class

The lady in the Rambles is both irrational and rational. She is obviously losing control of herself (so one has the correct impulse to care). But she also knows exactly

SFI took Turing seriously, and provided big, generative answers for what it might mean for something to "compute". Physically, chemically, biologically, cognitively, economically, socially. Networks, CAs, long tails, scaling—a long