The new virus is a great confirmation of @nntaleb distinction btw phenomena where we can use the knowledge derived from Mediocristan and the phenomena that belong to Extremistan and where Mediocristan knowledge is useless.

Somebody pointed out that the number of deaths from corona is (so far) less than the deaths from an ordinary influenza. But the latter is Mediocristan, we know its distribution, high values. The corona is unknown. We do not know its extreme values.

This is the same as the debate Taleb had w/ @sapinker. It's ok to draw inferences "about our better nature" from the decrease of homicides, but not abt the war deaths when we live in a shadow of a nuclear war that could destroy billions
In both (new virus, war) Extremistan rules