#Estimates

Anthony Costello

globalhlthtwit

Let me summarise a really important new #COVID19 modelling paper from Rosalyn Moran, Karl Friston and colleagues from Kings and UCL, London. Published in ArXiV. (1) https://www.fil.ion.ucl.ac.uk/spm/covid-19/Moran_arXiv_2020.pdf "We sought to

Jed Kolko

JedKolko

Another way this time is different:This is a big-city recession. Payroll employment has fallen most in the largest metros since February.1/ Unemployment has risen most in the largest metros.The BLS

Daniel Howdon

danielhowdon

The forthcoming hell debate on excess deaths is going to be over the time period of aggregation. Spiked already have several articles good-to-go arguing that over a sufficiently long time

Allen Holub

allenholub

Taking a cue from epidemiologists, it might be a good thing abandon the notion of "forecasts" and "estimates" in software and talk, instead, about models. A model is a dynamic

Madhu Pai, MD, PhD

paimadhu

Thread on the 2020 Global Tuberculosis Report released by WHO today.10M people developed TB in 2019 and 1.4M died. Hardly any change from the previous year.https://www.who.int/teams/global-tuberculosis-programme/global-tuberculosis-report-2

Don't Be Ignorant

dontbei

I’m not a fan of polls. Which way the wind blows is all. This poll is interesting to me due to 4K sample size. Roughly 3x most polls, I believe.“A

Stephanie Leutert

Sleutert

If you are looking for a non-Covid (although also grim) read, here is our latest report that aims to document the 1,600+ people who have died in South Texas since

Daniel Hungerman

D_Hungerman

If you are interested in donations to charity--a thread on my just-published paper with Mark Wihelm https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/713190#.YJQ-vXDvovA.twitter Two very common incentives when you donate are (a) tax-incentives

jeffrey spence

spence_jeffrey_

I'm a bit confused about the conclusions of the new preprint on serological testing in Santa Clara county.https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1 In the supplement they say 2 out of 371 + 35 known

Justin Wolfers

JustinWolfers

My latest with @qdbui for @UpshotNYT: The usual economic indicators can't keep up when the economy is shifting this fast. So we turn to electricity data which suggests the economy

Marc Lipsitch

mlipsitch

Two preprints recently make an important point: for any infection, including COVID-19, it is possible that herd immunity can be accomplished with more than 1/R0 of the population still susceptible.

Jon Whiten

WhitenJon

Our new report estimates that states are facing revenue shortfalls that could top $500B - mostly concentrated in a single fiscal year (the next). The feds can and must do

Mustafa Tameez

MustafaTameez

Tuesday, April 14th marked the projected US peak date in #coronavirus death based on the University of Washington model—which is what the White House regularly references. I want to take

Abir Ballan 😊

abirballan

CFR, IFR, CMR & one more R:Reality check. I was deeply disturbed yesterday to hear a friend of mine claiming that the mortality from C19 is 5%. Well, it is

Max Kennerly

MaxKennerly

Lloyd's a billionaire and Senior Chairman at Goldman Sachs. He could easily employ a team of actuaries, biostatisticians, economists, epidemiologists, hospitalists, infectologists, and statisticians to price out various cost/benefit sce

Daniel Dale

ddale8

This manufacturing jobs section is a mess on both sides.1) Harris said the US lost 300,000 manufacturing jobs because of the China trade war. But the US gained manufacturing jobs