The forthcoming hell debate on excess deaths is going to be over the time period of aggregation. Spiked already have several articles good-to-go arguing that over a sufficiently long time period, excess deaths tend towards zero.

tens of editors currently wondering if they can hit publish tomorrow at 9.30am

(the odd pattern in the data for most recently published two weeks is, as ever, a bank holiday effect)

Covid deaths going above excess deaths is probably a sign that this isn't far off now. https://twitter.com/NickStripe_ONS/status/1267740295472582657

This is an interesting piece although it's a shame that the specifics of the harmonic regression employed (& uncertainty around estimates) aren't documented a bit more. I think it also points to another absolute hellfront in any coming excess deaths debate https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-mortality-over-time-ons-update-2nd-june/