My latest with @qdbui for @UpshotNYT: The usual economic indicators can& #39;t keep up when the economy is shifting this fast. So we turn to electricity data which suggests the economy has sunk further over the past 3 weeks than over the entire Great Recession.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/08/upshot/electricity-usage-predict-coronavirus-recession.html">https://www.nytimes.com/interacti...
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/08/upshot/electricity-usage-predict-coronavirus-recession.html">https://www.nytimes.com/interacti...
Here& #39;s the problem: The economy has never changed this fast before. The unemployment rate is moving as much every two days as it typically moves in a year.
So we need economic indicators that can tell us what& #39;s happening across the whole economy, day by day.
So we need economic indicators that can tell us what& #39;s happening across the whole economy, day by day.
Economist @SteveCicala saw the need for high-quality daily data some time ago, and he& #39;s been working to put together estimates of electricity usage which strip out the effects of weather and seasonal factors.
He& #39;s the one who has put together this amazing data.
He& #39;s the one who has put together this amazing data.
And guess what? This new indicator works.
Recall the days after Lehman collapsed in Sept & #39;08. Electricity use immediately cratered. But it took months -- and many revisions -- for the official stats like GDP or payrolls to pick up the carnage.
Recall the days after Lehman collapsed in Sept & #39;08. Electricity use immediately cratered. But it took months -- and many revisions -- for the official stats like GDP or payrolls to pick up the carnage.