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My latest with @qdbui for @UpshotNYT: The usual economic indicators can't keep up when the economy is shifting this fast. So we turn to electricity data which suggests the economy has sunk further over the past 3 weeks than over the entire Great Recession.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/08/upshot/electricity-usage-predict-coronavirus-recession.html
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/08/upshot/electricity-usage-predict-coronavirus-recession.html
Here's the problem: The economy has never changed this fast before. The unemployment rate is moving as much every two days as it typically moves in a year.
So we need economic indicators that can tell us what's happening across the whole economy, day by day.
So we need economic indicators that can tell us what's happening across the whole economy, day by day.
Economist @SteveCicala saw the need for high-quality daily data some time ago, and he's been working to put together estimates of electricity usage which strip out the effects of weather and seasonal factors.
He's the one who has put together this amazing data.
He's the one who has put together this amazing data.
And guess what? This new indicator works.
Recall the days after Lehman collapsed in Sept '08. Electricity use immediately cratered. But it took months -- and many revisions -- for the official stats like GDP or payrolls to pick up the carnage.
Recall the days after Lehman collapsed in Sept '08. Electricity use immediately cratered. But it took months -- and many revisions -- for the official stats like GDP or payrolls to pick up the carnage.
