Lloyd& #39;s a billionaire and Senior Chairman at Goldman Sachs. He could easily employ a team of actuaries, biostatisticians, economists, epidemiologists, hospitalists, infectologists, and statisticians to price out various cost/benefit scenarios.

But he won& #39;t, because...
/1 https://twitter.com/lloydblankfein/status/1241907502662418437">https://twitter.com/lloydblan...
...the economic numbers blow up. Let& #39;s do a thought experiment. Assume:

(a) we still do enough social distancing to reduce infection rates by a whopping 75%;

(b) only 20% of infected people need health care services, and only 30% of those need an ICU.

What happens then?
/2
The healthcare system collapses. Consider this article in the NEJM today: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsb2005114?query=featured_coronavirus

What">https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/... I described above is the "severe" scenario. We& #39;d have 3,840,000 patients needing to use 85,000 ICU beds, 160,000 ventilators, and 25,000 respiratory therapists (per shift).
/3
The healthcare system collapses. Consider this article in the NEJM today: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/... I described above is the "severe" scenario. We& #39;d have 3,840,000 patients needing to use 85,000 ICU beds, 160,000 ventilators, and 25,000 respiratory therapists (per shift)./3
The healthcare system collapses. Consider this article in the NEJM today: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/... I described above is the "severe" scenario. We& #39;d have 3,840,000 patients needing to use 85,000 ICU beds, 160,000 ventilators, and 25,000 respiratory therapists (per shift)./3
"Restart the economy" people could do the math on "what does it cost the economy if over 3 million people need intensive care but can& #39;t get it?" but, of course, they won& #39;t, because using any reasonable value of a statistical life (VSL) puts that cost well into the trillions.
/4
So if we follow Lloyd& #39;s advice we& #39;re already at *trillions* of dollars in damage, and that& #39;s with the rosy assumption we cut the infection rate by 75% and only 6% of infections need intensive care—and that& #39;s looking at just the ICU issue, and not issues like downstream effects./5
So if we follow Lloyd& #39;s advice we& #39;re already at *trillions* of dollars in damage, and that& #39;s with the rosy assumption we cut the infection rate by 75% and only 6% of infections need intensive care—and that& #39;s looking at just the ICU issue, and not issues like downstream effects./5
So if we follow Lloyd& #39;s advice we& #39;re already at *trillions* of dollars in damage, and that& #39;s with the rosy assumption we cut the infection rate by 75% and only 6% of infections need intensive care—and that& #39;s looking at just the ICU issue, and not issues like downstream effects./5
So if we follow Lloyd& #39;s advice we& #39;re already at *trillions* of dollars in damage, and that& #39;s with the rosy assumption we cut the infection rate by 75% and only 6% of infections need intensive care—and that& #39;s looking at just the ICU issue, and not issues like downstream effects./5
In short, "restart the economy" is not just callous and cruel, it is bad economics. It is another form of the dangerously wrong assumption that Covid-19 is like the flu. It is not. It is tsunami of pneumonia, respiratory failure, and death.

/end
Like I said in the thread above: anyone making the economic argument to do less needs to show some math. A 75% reduction in the infection rate of Covid-19 still means >3 million people need intensive care but won& #39;t get it. What& #39;s the economic cost of that? https://twitter.com/matthewjdowd/status/1242199425432408064?s=19">https://twitter.com/matthewjd...
Every one of these "restart the economy" arguments is based on a completely unrealistic estimate about the prevalence and severity of COVID-19.

It& #39;s like saying "the county fair must go on!" while a tornado is approaching. The damage would be massive. https://twitter.com/MaxKennerly/status/1242469716473585664">https://twitter.com/MaxKenner...
Nope, because pricing the "cost" of "over 1 million dead, over 3 million needing critical care but not getting it, over 20% of cops, firefighters, teachers, nurses, and doctors sickened" produces figures with far more zeros than a partial work stoppage. https://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/1242423482387968000">https://twitter.com/JustinWol...
"I don& #39;t know" is outrageous. If he really didn& #39;t know, then, like Lloyd Blankfein, he could make a few phone calls and have a team of experts model scenarios.

Truth is, he knows the numbers are so insanely bad that they& #39;re not worth running. He& #39;s lying. https://twitter.com/yashar/status/1242852543513821185">https://twitter.com/yashar/st...
Hey, look here, some real economists ran "but the economy!" numbers and... big surprise, letting a pandemic spread unabated is not good for the economy.

Who could& #39;ve guessed, other than literally everyone with a brain. https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1243568471637663746">https://twitter.com/gelliottm...
Ah, now it& #39;s "health versus health." Okay, @SecAzar, show us your estimates. Let us see the trade-offs here.

But the "re-open the economy" people never have any estimates or analyses. They know the numbers don& #39;t work without ludicrous assumptions. https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1262017350280400903">https://twitter.com/kaitlanco...
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