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Natalie E. Dean, PhD
nataliexdean
1/7 Lots of folks trying to understand sensitivity and specificity. Maybe the most important concept to understand right now is that of POSITIVE PREDICTIVE VALUE.Given a test result is positive,
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1/7 Serosurveys! We scientists are quibbling about specificity, but what do these study results mean for the general public?My take on what serosurveys can and cannot tell us. 2/7 Emerging
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An estimated 6% of Miami-Dade county residents are seropositive. Investigators leading this ongoing study recruited participants by calling a random, representative sample to consent to drive-thru testing. Infection roughly 15x
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A toy example of why test sensitivity and specificity matter in serosurveys.Imagine population seroprevalence is 4%. Test sensitivity is 80%. Specificity is 99.9%. For a random sample of 3000 participants,
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Maybe a good idea to tell the thousands of people who have viewed and liked this thread that this study wasn’t peer reviewed.https://twitter.com/skarlamangla/status/1252327455609634817 Do better. I’m going to bed.
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“Nobody knows the truth — let’s be honest,” Dr. Ioannidis said of the prevalence figures. “But if I had to guess, I would say it is probably higher than our
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EPI 101 thread on sensitivity and specificity, plus its application to #COVID19 screening. For those who want a refresher!The way we summarize the accuracy of a test (such as RT-PCR
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1. It's easier to poke holes in a study than to run a study yourself. We should expect many more SARS-CoV-2 serosurveys in our future. So in the spirit of
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Completing this thought. Our current focus is on reducing community transmission through distancing, which is critical for slowing spread. Of course SARS-CoV-2 only gets into households through the community (other
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Hey friends! I wrote my first newspaper article.In this perspective piece, I talk about the importance of randomized clinical trials even in the most challenging settings (like pandemics!). And
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1/ Love this article that highlights the promise and challenges of contact tracing. Includes insights from an expert who led Ebola tracing efforts in Liberia. And great quotes from all-star
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1/ I have a theory about what is going on here...One key difference in the updated IHME model is a new assumed value of a key parameter. This is the
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