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Chris Giles

ChrisGiles_

NEW: The excess UK deaths linked to coronavirus are likely to be around41,000as of yesterday, not the 17,337 of the hospital deaths announcementsHere is the explanation for that estimate, which

There is nothing normal about British death registrationsfrom @ONS- Here England and Wales - Later today I will:- include Scotland and Northern Ireland- show with a simple updating model what

The article explaining the calculations is here2/https://www.ft.com/content/67e6a4ee-3d05-43bc-ba03-e239799fa6ab The methods are simple and involve no forecasting of how the Covid-19 pandemic will progress. It is just an updating model - taking

NEW: Today's update of the @FinancialTimes UK death model suggests that by 22 April there have been roughly43,100 excess deaths linked to coronavirus.The 2,000 increase from Tuesday reflects:a) 759 hospital

Now free to read out story that the number of UK deaths is likely to be around 41,000not 17,337 to datehttps://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1252842179740831744 Obviously "our" not "out"

OBR lays out a scenario with its expected economic damageOutput currently 35% down, it estiamtesAnd borrowing likely to rise to 14% of GDP - far worse than finanical crisis OBR

Never been a week with as many deaths since records began in 2005Data for week 14 (ending 3 April)Many more deaths still to be registered for that week so this

We knew the daily coronavirus death counts were too low because of reporting delaysWe had little idea they were 80% too low....All in guts of todays @ONS statistics Naturally these