We knew the daily coronavirus death counts were too low because of reporting delays

We had little idea they were 80% too low....

All in guts of todays @ONS statistics

Naturally these are out of date now, but at least more accurate - and more alarming

The true figures will be higher still because these exclude deaths outside hospitals,

But ONS stats rely on deaths being registered (hard in a lockdown) so these comes with an bigger lag

Cumulative under-reporting of daily deaths by date of figures Vs date of actual death in hospital is averaging a little over 80%

On a per day basis, there is a persistent under-reporting of deaths

This is important.

In the end the numbers must match, so the daily counts we get at 14:00 will miss the peak, which will come earlier than it appears because we will go on recording many deaths in hospitals even when the rates are declining fast