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We knew the daily coronavirus death counts were too low because of reporting delays
We had little idea they were 80% too low....
All in guts of todays @ONS statistics
We had little idea they were 80% too low....
All in guts of todays @ONS statistics
Naturally these are out of date now, but at least more accurate - and more alarming
The true figures will be higher still because these exclude deaths outside hospitals,
But ONS stats rely on deaths being registered (hard in a lockdown) so these comes with an bigger lag
The true figures will be higher still because these exclude deaths outside hospitals,
But ONS stats rely on deaths being registered (hard in a lockdown) so these comes with an bigger lag
Cumulative under-reporting of daily deaths by date of figures Vs date of actual death in hospital is averaging a little over 80%
On a per day basis, there is a persistent under-reporting of deaths
This is important.
In the end the numbers must match, so the daily counts we get at 14:00 will miss the peak, which will come earlier than it appears because we will go on recording many deaths in hospitals even when the rates are declining fast
In the end the numbers must match, so the daily counts we get at 14:00 will miss the peak, which will come earlier than it appears because we will go on recording many deaths in hospitals even when the rates are declining fast
