Brad Setser, Discover and Read the Best of Twitter Threads by @Brad_Setser

Brad Setser

Brad_Setser

Today's GDP data obviously has gotten its share of coverage -- but I did want to highlight now unusual the downturn in q2 and partial recovery in q3 are.

Fair summary of the data on the impact of Trump's China tariffs by @bobdavis187 and @JoshZumbrun.1/xhttps://www.wsj.com/articles/china-trade-war-didnt-boost-u-s-manufacturing-might-11603618203 Has some interesting color on polysilicon (

False analogy. Asian pegs collapsed back in 1997 because external short-term fx debts exceeded reserves, not because of high m2 to reserves.I (literally) wrote a book about itChinese fx

Think the framing on this WSJ story is backwards -- real question is how long can China rely on the (weak) rest of the world to drive its own recovery

A thread on the euro area's August trade data.The overall trade surplus (goods only, but the services balance is hugely distorted by Ireland) is almost back to its pre COVID-19

China bought Treasuries in August (TIC transactional data). It isn't actually that significant to the Treasury market: the Fed matters way more. And the size of the recorded purchases isn't

I worry that the IMF's agenda this fall is far less ambitious than the current shock demands. One way of framing this point is that the IMF so far

Turkey's financial stress continues to be remarkably simple to explain: Turkey is running a current account deficit (now almost $25b on a trailing 12m basis, and more if you annualize

Earlier this week I wrote about the gap between the US import data from China and the Chinese data on exports to the US. In August, these Chinese data

A central tenet of my world view is that the net flow that covers any country's current account deficit is embedded in the global data on gross flows, and one

Well, in my opinion the new tax bill contains two new provisions that reward offshoring --The fact that the GILTI is a tax on intangible income so it its reduced

The Fed now holds more long-term Treasury bonds or notes than all the world's central banks combined.Confirms something I been arguing for a while -- the Fed, not China or