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#Probability
UnrecognizedMusic
RealURM
Hello everyone! I just did a soundcloud dump-load. Check them out! (thread incoming) This song has been sitting in the vault since 2018.https://soundcloud.com/user-714334490/instability-probability-original This one has also been sitting in
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David Stark
starkupnation
Fundamentally, building a startup is a losing game — the outright probability of failure outweighs the probability of success. But how can you use optionality to turn the odds in
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Gro-Tsen
gro_tsen
Is it possible to use quantum mechanics to create a gadget with the following “paradoxical” properties?When used, the gadget creates a pair of thingies. On each thingy, one of three
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Casper Albers
CaAl
What probability corresponds to words as "Likely" and "Maybe"? Together with @sannejwwillems and @ionicasmeets I studied interpretations (n=881) of Dutch "probability words". Some words have very different meanings for d
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Lucy D’Agostino McGowan
LucyStats
Here’s an overview of #COVID19 testing by @LKucirka, @justinlessler, & co on the relationship between the false negative rate (RT-PCR) & when you were tested. This is a *crucial* graph
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Professor Philip Nolan
President_MU
A useful article. The conclusions are broadly correct, but the calculations are right only if we were randomly screening large asymptomatic populations. We mostly test people with symptoms and close
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julesh
_julesh_
*Thread*Let D be the finite support probability monad, taking every set X to the set DX of f.s. probability distributions on it. D-algebras are called (abstract) convex sets, and are
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Carl T. Bergstrom
CT_Bergstrom
He also seems to have blocked me for reasons I don't know, and to have not read my post closely. As I explained in the last of three posts, the
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Kostas Anagnostou
KostasAAA
A mini Importance Sampling adventure: imagine a signal that we need to integrate (sum it's samples) over its domain. It could for example be an environment map convolution for diffuse
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Z Bolay Buss
buss_patriarchy
Thinking more abt the whole CBT as glorified gaslighting issue & how one of the supposed “thought distortions” is “catastrophizing” but I haven’t seen the reverse “minimizing” labeled as a
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Tradytics
Tradytics
1/nInteresting strategy that just came to mind - explaining with $TSLA, $NIO - we have an AI tool that allows you to look at future price ranges i.e the max
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Rob Levy
robbylevy
BIG BTC TRADE!Yesterday there was a buyer of over 5000 BTC $50,000 calls expiring December 31, 2021.Buyer paid from $1,100 up to $1,200 per call option.WHAT DOES THIS MEAN??Time for
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UnmodernM
UnmodernM
When you do everything your dad tells you to do,you’re a slave.When you become better as a result of it, then to be a slave is in your BEST interest.And
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Timothy Gowers
wtgowers
I want to say a little bit more about @joel_c_miller's point below, and explain why, like several more knowledgeable people I follow (such as @nataliexdean), I am sceptical about the
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Dan Gardner
dgardner
I agree with all of this (minus “misleading” — Wimbledon’s challenge was same in kind, though vastly easier). It’s an epic poem of a subject and I had space for
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Karthik
karthiks
One class of people who have become loud of twitter of late is what I call the "testing mafia". Every time someone tweets some covid-19 related news that seems mildly
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