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What probability corresponds to words as "Likely" and "Maybe"? Together with @sannejwwillems and @ionicasmeets I studied interpretations (n=881) of Dutch "probability words". Some words have very different meanings for different people. This is important for risk communication.
We also found out that seemingly 'symmetrical terms' such as possible and impossible are actually not that symmetric!
Also, you might think that the context in which the words are used matters a lot. Well, it doesn't (to our surprise as well).
Also, you might think that the context in which the words are used matters a lot. Well, it doesn't (to our surprise as well).
We also looked at whether statisticians interpret terms differently, or more consistent, than laypeople (they don't) or whether there's a gender difference (there isn't).
For full details, please see the preprint. https://arxiv.org/abs/1901.09686
For full details, please see the preprint. https://arxiv.org/abs/1901.09686
Continuing this thread of 14 months ago with the happy message that our paper has now been published - open access - by the Journal of Science Communication. Compared to the preprint, it has some exciting new graphics! https://jcom.sissa.it/archive/19/02/JCOM_1902_2020_A03
