What probability corresponds to words as "Likely" and "Maybe"? Together with @sannejwwillems and @ionicasmeets I studied interpretations (n=881) of Dutch "probability words". Some words have very different meanings for different people. This is important for risk communication.

We also found out that seemingly & #39;symmetrical terms& #39; such as possible and impossible are actually not that symmetric!

Also, you might think that the context in which the words are used matters a lot. Well, it doesn& #39;t (to our surprise as well).

We also looked at whether statisticians interpret terms differently, or more consistent, than laypeople (they don& #39;t) or whether there& #39;s a gender difference (there isn& #39;t).

For full details, please see the preprint. https://arxiv.org/abs/1901.09686 ">https://arxiv.org/abs/1901....

Continuing this thread of 14 months ago with the happy message that our paper has now been published - open access - by the Journal of Science Communication. Compared to the preprint, it has some exciting new graphics! https://jcom.sissa.it/archive/19/02/JCOM_1902_2020_A03">https://jcom.sissa.it/archive/1...